Understanding the 2023–2025 Backlog, the 2026 Proposal, and What Comes Next.
A Policy Briefing for Public Clarity and National Stability.
By Princess G. Adebajo-Fraser, MFR
The National Patriots – Policy, Security & Governance Analysis.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.
Nigeria’s 2026 Budget Address has triggered widespread public anxiety for one main reason: budgets approved in 2023, 2024, and 2025 remain only partially implemented, yet a new 2026 budget has been presented. Social media debate has framed this as evidence of fraud, diversion, and economic mismanagement. While these concerns are not baseless, much of the public conversation reflects confusion about how budgeting, releases, project execution, and government liabilities actually work.
This briefing explains what really happened between 2023 and 2025, what a “budget reset” means in practice, whether unpaid contractors will lose their claims, how other countries handle similar fiscal situations, and what Nigerian authorities must do next to restore confidence.
The central reality is straightforward:
The issue is not that Nigeria proposed a 2026 budget.
The deeper issue is that overlapping budget cycles, weak execution discipline, and poor transparency have been allowed to persist.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED (2023–2025): APPROVAL IS NOT CASH.
Between 2023 and 2025, federal budgets were lawfully approved. However, capital spending execution did not match approvals. Many projects suffered delayed or staggered releases, leaving certified work unpaid. Appropriation authorises spending; it does not guarantee immediate cash payment. Cash depends on revenue flow, debt service, treasury controls, and timing of releases.
Overlapping fiscal cycles worsened the problem.
The 2024 capital budget was extended into 2025, while new 2025 projects were approved before older ones were financially closed. Nigeria, therefore ran multiple capital budgets simultaneously. This weakens tracking, complicates audits, delays payments, and creates opportunities for manipulation.
WHY GOVERNMENT CALLED IT A “BUDGET RESET”
A budget reset is an attempt to restore order. It usually means ending overlapping cycles, consolidating projects into a single framework, and reconciling outstanding liabilities. A reset is corrective in intent, but it only works if it is transparent. Without transparency, it becomes a risk factor rather than a solution.
WHAT HAPPENS TO UNPAID CONTRACTORS?
A reset does not cancel lawful government obligations. It does not erase debts for valid, certified work. It may, however, delay payment while claims are verified.
Unpaid obligations usually fall into three categories:
Valid contracts with certified work – these are legitimate arrears and should be paid through arrears clearance, supplementary budgets, structured repayment, or rolled liabilities.
Partially certified or disputed claims – these are commonly paused for verification.
Invalid or inflated contracts – these may be cancelled or investigated.
Public fear is understandable because overlapping budgets combined with weak transparency increase the risk of selective payments and diversion.
THE HUMAN AND FINANCIAL COST.
Delayed payments have real consequences. Contractors borrow from banks to execute projects. When payment is delayed, interest accumulates, businesses weaken, workers lose jobs, and banks face non-performing loans. Some contractors have lost properties used as collateral. This is not theoretical; it is systemic damage that must be acknowledged and addressed.
HOW OTHER COUNTRIES HANDLE SIMILAR ISSUES.
Other countries face delays but manage them through rules.
The United States uses temporary funding laws to bridge gaps.
The United Kingdom relies on strict carry-forward and audit frameworks.
South Africa allows rollovers under defined legal conditions.
The lesson is clear: flexibility is normal, but uncontrolled flexibility is dangerous.
IS THIS JUST AN ADMINISTRATIVE ISSUE?
No. It is administrative, fiscal, and governance-related. Revenue shortfalls, high debt service, weak project monitoring, and overlapping budgets have combined to erode accountability and public trust.
WHAT GOVERNMENT MUST DO NEXT.
To restore confidence, government must publish a national arrears register, ring-fence arrears in the 2026 framework, enforce independent verification, communicate clearly with contractors, halt excessive new projects, and provide monthly public updates on releases and payments.
CONCLUSION:
Overlapping budgets increase fraud risk.
A new budget does not erase old obligations.
Valid contractors should still be paid.
The reset can correct disorder or conceal it. Transparency will decide.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS.
1. Why weren’t earlier budgets fully implemented?
Because approval does not guarantee cash. Releases depend on revenue and debt obligations.
2. Is it legal to introduce a new budget?
Yes. The issue is execution, not legality.
3. Does a reset cancel debts?
No. It reconciles them.
4. Will contractors be paid?
Yes, if contracts are valid and work is certified.
5. Why are contractors worried?
Because delays have already caused losses and uncertainty.
6. Does this increase fraud risk?
Yes, if transparency is absent.
Is Nigeria alone?
7. No. The difference is how transparently the issue is managed.
8. What should Nigerians watch?
Publication of arrears and payment plans.
The ongoing debate around Nigeria’s budget reset underscores a deeper national challenge: the tendency to politicise complex policy decisions rather than make the effort to understand them. Fiscal reforms, by nature, are technical, disruptive, and often misunderstood. Unfortunately, opposition actors have deliberately framed the 2026 budget reset as a crisis, knowing that public financial management is not easily grasped by the majority of citizens.
Nigerians elected the President to govern, not to seek daily validation for difficult reforms. A mandate confers responsibility, and responsible leadership sometimes requires recalibration, not populism. The danger today is not reform, but the noise created by self-styled “experts” who confuse rather than educate, turning public discourse into spectacle.
Nation-building is not crowd-sourced. It requires trained technocrats, institutional discipline, and the political space to correct systemic distortions in pursuit of sustainable development.
Princess G. A. Adebajo-Fraser MFR.
President, The National Patriots.
Former Special Adviser Strategy, Research, Planning to Former President Goodluck Jonathan.
Dr. Fraser photo FI.
Inside. Budget office logo, President photo signing budget, Tinubu’s photo at National Assembly, NASS logo. Presidential seal, ministry of finance logo, wale edun minister photo, coat of arms,
