Nigerians face the prospect of paying higher prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS, petrol) and Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) following a spike in global crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. The increase comes after temporary hopes for cheaper fuel when prices had dipped to $92 per barrel, only for tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran to push crude costs upward.
Both Dangote Petroleum Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) had earlier announced reductions in petrol prices, but the recent escalation in the Middle East conflict has limited further relief. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that crude prices had initially fallen to $88 per barrel after member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels from reserves to mitigate supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. However, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, signaled continued blockages, triggering a rebound in oil prices to between $96 and $117 per barrel.
Locally, petrol prices remain high, with depot owners in Lagos, Warri, Port Harcourt, and Calabar selling between N1,175 and N1,220 per litre. Commuters and transporters have expressed frustration over rising costs, calling on the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to enforce fair pricing.
Despite the global price surge, NNPC has reduced pump prices to N1,130 per litre in Lagos and N1,165 in Abuja. The cuts, effective from Wednesday, were implemented before the recent spike in crude prices.
Petroleum economist Prof. Wumi Iledare explained that Nigeria’s downstream market is undergoing structural transition, moving from administered pricing and import dependence toward market-driven mechanisms. He noted that volatility is expected as domestic refining capacity increases and market signals adjust to supply, exchange rates, and replacement costs.
The Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global energy markets. Retaliatory strikes from Iran on Gulf energy infrastructure have slowed shipping through the Straits of Hormuz and led to attacks on several vessels, including oil tankers in Iraqi waters, resulting in casualties. The IEA warns that the disruption is the largest in the history of the global oil market.
Domestically, Nigeria’s crude output fell to 1.314 million barrels per day in February 2026, below OPEC and national targets, limiting the country’s ability to benefit fully from high global prices. Experts warn that while the government may see increased revenue, citizens are likely to bear the brunt through higher fuel and commodity costs.
Several industry observers and entrepreneurs have called on the Nigerian government to stabilize fuel prices through targeted subsidies, boosting domestic refining, reducing import dependence, and ensuring that increased global oil prices benefit the public rather than exacerbating inflation. They urge enhanced crude production, protection of pipelines, and better alignment of domestic refineries to meet local demand.
