The Managing Director of Dangote Refinery, David Bird, has said that solar power becomes expensive when its full life cycle and system costs are properly accounted for, warning that energy debates often ignore the broader economics of reliability and backup supply.
Bird spoke on Monday at the Nigerian Association for Energy Economics conference in Lagos, where he delivered a wide-ranging address on energy policy, industrialisation, and the future of Africa’s energy mix.
He said the global energy conversation has become overly focused on a single direction of technology choice, arguing instead for what he described as a balanced and pragmatic energy mix.
According to him, “Solar power is expensive when fully costed,” stressing that public discussions often overlook the hidden costs required to make intermittent energy sources reliable.
While saying he is not anti-renewables, Bird said he is for energy freedom, warning that energy systems must be evaluated based on utilisation and reliability, noting that capital-intensive infrastructure cannot be justified if it is underused.
The Dangote refinery boss questioned the economics of intermittent power systems, arguing that their dependence on weather conditions introduces structural inefficiencies.
“I still struggle to understand the economics of intermittent weather-dependent energy,” he said.
He further raised concerns about the cost of ensuring reliability in systems dependent on solar and wind, stating that backup requirements significantly increase overall expenses.
“If we want reliable on-demand energy. That’s our base premise. How do you size that backup? Do you size a battery for one cloudy day, two cloudy days, three cloudy days, or five cloudy days? Whatever size you make it for, by definition it will be underutilised,” he said.
Bird said the full system cost of solar energy is often underestimated because discussions tend to focus only on installation costs rather than long-term reliability requirements.
“The more solar and wind, the costlier it becomes because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy. You pay twice for unreliable green energy and for a full backup electricity system. No cheap green electricity,” he said.
He also criticised what he described as unequal access to renewable energy subsidies in some countries, arguing that they disproportionately benefit wealthier households.
“Actually, I enjoyed subsidies to put solar panels in my house. I’m a homeowner. I’m distinctly middle class. So, I could afford the capital outlay for the solar panels. I could afford the capital outlay for the battery, knowing that I would get rebates from the government,” he said.
Bird said lower-income households are often excluded from such incentives due to financial constraints.
Bird questioned the fairness of such a policy framework, highlighting concerns about the long-term disposal and waste management of renewable infrastructure such as solar panels.
He said, “We are now going to embark on the life cycle expiry of solar panels. And I’m intrigued by the labels. Like fossil fuel, ‘fossil’ sounds bad and sort of negative and old. And we say renewables. Renewables sound inexhaustible. It’s fantastic.
“But yes, solar panels have a lifetime. Wind turbines have a lifetime. And are we fully accommodating those life cycle costs, and how then will they be dealt with as we deal with this waste problem?”
He added that shifting production away from fossil fuel economies without building equivalent industrial capacity locally could weaken domestic economies.
“We export the coal to China. They create the factories and the jobs to manufacture the solar panels. And we import the solar panels, which drives up our energy price,” he said.
Bird maintained that while renewable energy has a role, it should not be pursued in isolation or at the expense of energy security and industrial development.
