Nigeria’s trade with the United States has shifted dramatically in the first nine months of 2025, as exports to the US dropped sharply while imports surged, reversing the trade balance that favoured Nigeria a year earlier. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows exports fell by N940.98 billion, while imports more than doubled during the period.
According to NBS figures, Nigeria shipped goods worth N3.65 trillion to the US from January to September 2025, down from N4.59 trillion in the same period of 2024, marking a 20.5 per cent decline. Meanwhile, imports from the US jumped from N3.01 trillion to N6.80 trillion, an increase of 125.5 per cent, leaving Nigeria with a trade deficit of roughly N3.15 trillion, compared with a surplus of N1.57 trillion in the first nine months of 2024.
The reversal coincides with the implementation of Washington’s “reciprocal” tariff policy, under which former President Donald Trump raised Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent in August 2025. While crude oil was largely exempted, the higher duty affected numerous non-oil Nigerian exports, creating uncertainty among US importers.
Non-oil exports bore the brunt of the disruption. In 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US rose steadily from N1.31 trillion in Q1 to N1.59 trillion in Q2 and N1.69 trillion in Q3, generating trade surpluses of N301.94 billion, N620.99 billion, and N649.71 billion, respectively.
The trend reversed in 2025. Exports began at N1.54 trillion in Q1, fell to N1.36 trillion in Q2, and collapsed to N743.63 billion in Q3. Imports, on the other hand, surged from N1.42 trillion in Q1 to N2.16 trillion in Q2, reaching N3.22 trillion in Q3. This created a widening trade deficit, with quarter-on-quarter export declines of 11.9 per cent between Q1 and Q2, followed by a 45.3 per cent drop between Q2 and Q3. Imports rose 51.8 per cent between Q1 and Q2 and 49.1 per cent between Q2 and Q3.
Year-on-year comparisons show exports grew 17.7 per cent in Q1 2025 versus Q1 2024 but fell 14.3 per cent in Q2 and plunged 56.0 per cent in Q3. Imports, meanwhile, jumped 40.9 per cent in Q1, 123.5 per cent in Q2, and 209.4 per cent in Q3, highlighting growing structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s trade profile.
Product-level data reveals that Q1 2025 exports were dominated by crude petroleum oils (N779.38 billion), urea (N240.17 billion), and kerosene-type jet fuel (N214.30 billion). By Q2, the export basket narrowed to cocoa beans (N37.39 billion), urea (N106.44 billion), and leather products (N127.22 million), while Q3 exports fell further to items like soya bean flour (N23.60 billion) and cocoa powder (N36.83 million). Imports expanded sharply, particularly crude oil, used vehicles, wheat, and industrial plastics.
President Bola Tinubu has assured that Nigeria will remain resilient against US trade policies, citing growing non-oil revenues as a buffer. “If non-oil revenue is growing, then we have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side,” he said. Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, echoed the stance, stressing that Nigeria will focus on export diversification, strengthening the African Continental Free Trade Area strategy, and expanding partnerships with countries like Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE.
Experts view the situation as an opportunity for Nigeria to adapt and diversify its trade. Dr Aliyu Ilias of CSA Advisory said that US tariffs affect many countries, presenting Nigeria with a chance to seek new partners. Economist Dr Muda Yusuf noted that Nigeria’s trade with the US is largely non-strategic, dominated by crude oil and a few other commodities, and that visa restrictions pose a bigger long-term challenge than tariffs.
The latest US visa restrictions, set to take effect January 1, 2026, will bar Nigerians holding B-1, B-2, F, M, and J visas from entering the country, affecting business, tourism, students, and exchange visitors. The restrictions were justified by the US on grounds of high visa overstay rates and national security concerns.
