Following the death of Pope Francis at the age of 88, speculation has intensified over who will take over the spiritual leadership of the Roman Catholic Church.
The pontiff, who had long battled health challenges, including a recent bout with double pneumonia, had already stirred conversations about succession well before his passing.
With his death confirmed a day after greeting the faithful at St Peter’s Basilica, attention now turns to the College of Cardinals.
How is a new Pope chosen?
The College of Cardinals, comprising ordained bishops and Vatican officials, gather in Rome to elect a new pope. Only cardinals under 80 can vote, and they are required to take an oath of absolute secrecy.
The cardinals are then locked inside the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel, where they deliberate and vote on potential candidates. A two-thirds majority vote is required to elect a new pope.
During the voting process, ballot papers are distributed and cardinals write the name of their chosen candidate. The votes are then counted, and the papers are burned, producing smoke that is visible to onlookers outside. White smoke indicates that a new pope has been elected.
Once a new pope is elected, they are asked to accept the election and choose a papal name.
For instance, Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, chose his name in honor of St. Francis of Assisi, known for his devotion to poverty, simplicity, and care for the environment.
This naming tradition allows the pope to symbolically connect with a saint’s values or legacy, shaping their papal identity. Other popes have similarly chosen names that reflect their aspirations or the direction they wish to lead the Church.
The new pope is then fitted with papal robes, and the announcement is made from St. Peter’s Basilica balcony. The new pope makes their first public appearance, gives a blessing, and begins their papacy.
The entire process is designed to ensure the confidentiality and integrity of the election, with strict rules in place to prevent external influences and maintain secrecy.
Who are the 15 Cardinals who could succeed Pope Francis?
Whether diplomats, theologians, mediators or Vatican insiders, here are 15 cardinals who are among the potential favourites to become the next pope, known as the “papabili”, divided by region.
This list however is by no means exhaustive and Francis’s successor could well be someone else.
1. Pietro Parolin (Italy), 70, Vatican Secretary of State
The Vatican’s chief diplomat, Parolin has been the number two at the Vatican during nearly all of Francis’s papacy.
He is known to many world leaders, having travelled the globe, but also to many inside the Roman Curia, the government of the Holy See.
A member of Francis’s Council of Cardinals, an advisory body, Parolin played a key role in the historic 2018 deal between the Holy See and China on the appointment of bishops.
2. Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy), 60, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem
Pizzaballa is the top Catholic in the Middle East with an archdiocese encompassing Israel, the Palestinian territories, Jordan and Cyprus.
He was made a cardinal in September 2023, shortly before the war broke out between Israel and Hamas.
The Franciscan has appealed for peace from both sides, and at Christmas in 2024 led mass both in Gaza and in Jerusalem.
3. Matteo Maria Zuppi (Italy), 69, Archbishop of Bologna
Zuppi, a member of the Roman community of Sant’Egidio, has for more than three decades acted as a discreet diplomat for the Vatican including serving as Pope Francis’s special peace envoy for Ukraine.
Known for riding his bicycle around Bologna, Zuppi is a popular figure for his decades of work on behalf of the needy. He also advocates for welcoming migrants and gay Catholics into the Church.
He has been president of the Italian Episcopal Conference (CEI) since 2022.
4. Claudio Gugerotti (Italy), 69
A diplomat and polyglot from the Italian city of Verona, Gugerotti is an expert on the Slavic world.
He served as nuncio — or ambassador of the Holy See — in several countries including Britain, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus and Ukraine.
Consulted by Pope Francis on the war between Ukraine and Russia, Gugerotti was named Prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches in 2022.
5. Jean-Marc Aveline (France), Archbishop of Marseille, 66
Born in Algeria, Aveline has spent most of his life in Marseille and is an emblematic figure of the southern French port city.
Considered a close friend of Pope Francis, he was appointed auxiliary bishop of Marseille in 2013 and elevated to cardinal in 2022.
The smiling, affable Aveline has advocated for dialogue between religions and cultures, and the defence of migrants — both central tenets of Pope Francis’s papacy.
6. Anders Arborelius (Sweden), 75, Bishop of Stockholm
Appointed in 2017 as Sweden’s first cardinal, Arborelius is a convert to Catholicism in the overwhelmingly Protestant Scandinavian country, home to one of the world’s most secularised societies.
He is the first Swedish Catholic bishop since the Protestant Reformation and a staunch defender of Church doctrine, notably opposed to allowing women to be deacons or blessing same-sex couples.
Like Pope Francis, Arborelius advocates welcoming migrants to Europe, including Christians, Catholics and potential converts.
7. Mario Grech (Malta), 68, Bishop emeritus of Gozo
Grech is the secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, a body that gathers information from local churches on crucial issues for the Church — whether the place of women or remarried divorced people — and passes it along to the pope.
He has had to perform a delicate balancing act, following Pope Francis’s lead on creating an open, attentive Church while acknowledging the concerns of conservatives.
He has acknowledged the “fraternal dialogue” between Catholics of all levels while assuring traditionalists that the Church is “not a democracy, the Church is hierarchical”.
8. Peter Erdo, 72, Metropolitan Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest
An intellectual and respected expert in canon law, Erdo speaks seven languages, has published more than 25 books, and is recognised for his openness to other religions.
But his ties with the government of nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban — whose hardline anti-migrant views clash with those of Pope Francis — have been under scrutiny in the past.
Known for his enthusiasm for evangelism, the cardinal who grew up under Communism is a conservative on such issues as gay marriage and divorcees who remarry.
9. Jean-Claude Hollerich, 67, Archbishop of Luxembourg
A Jesuit like Pope Francis, Hollerich spent over 20 years in Japan, and is a specialist in European-Asian cultural relations as well as German literature.
Firm on dogma, the theologian is still open to the need for the Church to adapt to societal changes, much like the Argentine pope he was close to and for whom he served as an adviser on the Council of Cardinals.
Hollerich has advocated for the environment and has pushed for laypeople, especially young people, to have more involvement in the Church.
10. Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines), 67, Metropolitan Archbishop emeritus of Manila
Tagle, Asia’s frontrunner for the papacy, is a charismatic moderate who has not been afraid to criticise the Church for its shortcomings, including over sexual abuse of minors.
Fluent in English, he is an eloquent speaker with self-deprecating humour and, like Francis, is a leading advocate for the poor, migrants and marginalised people.
Nicknamed “Chito”, he was made a cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2012 and had already been considered a candidate for pope in the 2013 conclave in which Francis was elected.
11. Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar), 76, Archbishop of Yangon
President of the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences, Maung Bo was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2015, his country’s first and only cardinal.
Bo has called for dialogue and reconciliation in conflict-ridden Myanmar, and after the military coup of 2021 appealed to opposition protesters to remain non-violent.
He has defended the persecuted mainly Muslim Rohingya, calling them victims of “ethnic cleansing”, and spoken out against human trafficking uprooting the lives of many young Burmese.
12. Peter Turkson (Ghana), 76, Archbishop emeritus of Cape Coast
One of the Church’s most influential cardinals from Africa, Turkson is often mentioned as a possible first black pope — although he said in 2010 he didn’t want the job, insisting any such pope would “have a rough time”.
He serves as the Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences.
Born into a humble family of 10 children, Turkson speaks six languages and has visited the World Economic Forum in Davos multiple times to convince business leaders of the perils of trickle-down economics.
13. Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of Congo), 65, Archbishop of Kinshasa
Ambongo is the only cardinal from Africa on Pope Francis’s Council of Cardinals, the advisory committee to the pontiff.
As president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, he signed a letter in January 2024 voicing opposition to the Vatican’s declaration allowing priests to carry out non-liturgical blessings of same-sex unions.
In a 2023 interview, Ambongo proclaimed that “Africa is the future of the Church, it’s obvious”.
14. Robert Francis Prevost (United States), 69, Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chicago
A native of Chicago, Prevost is the prefect of the powerful Dicastery for Bishops, which is charged with advising the pope on appointments of new bishops.
He spent years as a missionary in Peru and is the Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chicago in that South American country.
Made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023, he is also the president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America.
15. Timothy Dolan (United States), 75, Archbishop of New York
A jovial, ruddy-faced extrovert with Irish-American roots, Dolan is a theological conservative, fiercely opposed to abortion.
The former archbishop of Milwaukee, he oversaw the fallout from a major sexual abuse scandal in the diocese.
In New York, amid shrinking Church membership, Dolan has reached out to embrace the growing Hispanic population, which is predominantly Catholic.
