“From Economic Reset to National Renewal: Why Tinubu’s Reform Cycle Requires Completion”.
Nigeria’s reform history shows a recurring pattern—bold policies are introduced, early pain sets in, but political transitions interrupt consolidation before gains fully materialize.
Structural transformation is never instantaneous; it unfolds in phases.
It is within this context that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policy direction must be assessed.
His administration’s governance architecture—spanning fiscal restructuring, infrastructure expansion, human capital investment, and national reorientation—represents one of the most far-reaching recalibration efforts in Nigeria’s modern economic history.
The case for continuity in 2027 rests fundamentally on reform completion rather than political sentiment.
From inception, the administration confronted two entrenched distortions: fuel subsidy and multiple exchange rates.
Both had drained public finance for decades while encouraging arbitrage and discouraging productive investment.
Subsidy removal immediately halted unsustainable fiscal hemorrhage, while exchange-rate unification restored transparency to Nigeria’s currency framework.
Though politically sensitive, these measures signaled seriousness to investors, multilaterals, and credit institutions long wary of Nigeria’s policy inconsistencies.
The fiscal response was consequential.
Government revenues expanded significantly, reaching over ₦31.9 trillion in 2024, with some reporting cycles reflecting near doubling of inflows compared to pre-reform periods.
This surge strengthened the state’s capacity to fund capital projects and social programmes without excessive reliance on borrowing.
Fiscal deficit contraction—from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to about 3.0% in 2024—further reflected tightening discipline and an emerging culture of expenditure efficiency.
External buffers also strengthened. Foreign reserves rose markedly—from critically low levels to over $23 billion, with peaks reported near $46 billion by late 2024.
Stronger reserves improved Nigeria’s shock-absorption capacity and bolstered measured confidence in the naira.
Consecutive trade surpluses reinforced balance-of-payments stability, while helping moderate currency volatility.
Export diversification has been another structural gain.
Non-oil exports approaching nearly 48% of total exports signal gradual movement away from hydrocarbon dependence.
This transition enhances economic resilience, broadens revenue sources, and positions Nigeria for industrial competitiveness.
Investor sentiment mirrored these gains, with the Nigerian Exchange recording approximately 48% growth in 2025—an indicator of renewed private-sector confidence and capital formation.
Credit rating outlook improvements and rising foreign direct investment—particularly within fintech, telecommunications, and the digital economy—have reduced sovereign risk perception while fueling job-creating ventures.
With GDP growth projections exceeding 4% annually, macroeconomic stabilization appears to be transitioning toward expansion, provided reforms remain consistent.
Human capital development forms the second pillar of this reform matrix.
Through the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), tertiary education financing has been extended to hundreds of thousands of students, dismantling tuition barriers and promoting workforce competitiveness.
This initiative addresses long-standing inequities in access to higher education while positioning youth for participation in a knowledge-driven economy.
Entrepreneurship interventions have reached more than 900,000 Nigerians through grants and concessional loans, stimulating micro-enterprise growth, supporting SMEs, and localizing employment generation.
Complementing this is the upward revision of the national minimum wage to ₦70,000—an income policy response aimed at cushioning reform-driven cost pressures while sustaining consumer purchasing power.
Education infrastructure renewal has also advanced.
₦80 billion allocated to upgrade facilities across 100 federal unity schools strengthens institutional capacity and learning environments.
Reopening previously shut schools and revitalizing almajiri education through new learning centres, policy reforms, and model institutions directly addresses Nigeria’s out-of-school crisis—one of the most consequential drivers of poverty and social vulnerability.
Infrastructure expansion represents the physical backbone of national renewal.
Strategic highway corridors—including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road, Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway, Abuja-Kaduna-Kano Road, and Lagos-Ibadan Expressway—are redefining logistics mobility, regional trade, and travel efficiency.
Over ₦2 trillion committed to road infrastructure underscores the administration’s belief that connectivity drives economic productivity.
Port modernization—linking Tin Can Island upgrades with Lekki Deep Sea Port operations—alongside rail expansion is improving cargo evacuation, lowering logistics costs, and strengthening export competitiveness.
Energy sector decentralization through the Electricity Act has further unlocked sub-national generation authority, encouraging private investment and diversifying Nigeria’s power architecture.
Housing initiatives under the Renewed Hope Programme—including diaspora mortgage schemes and nationwide construction—are expanding urban housing supply while generating construction employment. Projects such as the 3,500-unit Renewed Hope City in Abuja illustrate the scale of federal ambition in addressing Nigeria’s housing deficit.
Security stabilization remains integral to economic recovery.
Intensified military operations leading to the neutralization of over 13,500 insurgents have restored farming activity, reopened trade routes, and improved civilian mobility in affected regions.
While security challenges persist, operational gains indicate escalated counter-terror commitment.
Social cushioning has accompanied reform implementation.
Cash transfers and targeted subsidies have provided relief to vulnerable populations, mitigating short-term hardship associated with subsidy withdrawal and currency realignment.
Nation-building initiatives extend beyond economics. Reward packages for women’s sports champions—housing, honours, and financial incentives—have strengthened national pride, inspired youth participation, and amplified gender inclusion.
Digital identity enrollment exceeding 126 million Nigerians enhances governance efficiency, welfare targeting, and fraud reduction.
Cultural symbolism, including anthem restoration, reinforces national cohesion and historical continuity.
Comparative global experiences underscore the continuity argument.
India’s economic liberalization, initiated under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, required sustained policy backing before delivering high-growth dividends that transformed India into a global economic force.
Brazil’s inflation stabilization under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso succeeded largely because reform continuity entrenched fiscal discipline and investor confidence.
Indonesia’s democratic and fiscal restructuring under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono required extended governance cycles before yielding macroeconomic stability and growth acceleration.
In Africa, Rwanda’s developmental transformation under President Paul Kagame illustrates how long-horizon reform leadership can convert post-conflict fragility into institutional strength and economic momentum.
These precedents highlight a consistent policy lesson: structural reforms are front-loaded with sacrifice but back-loaded with prosperity.
Electoral discontinuity often disrupts momentum, reverses investor confidence, and re-empowers entrenched inefficiencies.
This dynamic is best captured through the foundation metaphor. Tinubu’s first term resembles the engineering phase of national reconstruction—laying fiscal beams, embedding structural reinforcements, installing economic plumbing, and wiring institutional frameworks.
Foundations are rarely celebrated because they are largely invisible. Yet they determine the durability of the structure above.
Subsidy removal, exchange-rate alignment, revenue expansion, reserve rebuilding, infrastructure deployment, and power decentralization constitute subterranean work—technically complex, politically risky, but structurally decisive.
The finishing phase—mass job expansion, inflation moderation, industrial scaling, and widespread prosperity—typically emerges only after foundational stabilization.
Interrupting reform midway risks policy reversals, capital flight, and macroeconomic relapse.
Nigeria’s historical reform cycles—from structural adjustment to privatization—demonstrate the cost of inconsistency.
Continuity, therefore, becomes a strategic economic choice rather than a partisan one.
The 2027 electoral decision will determine whether Nigeria completes its reform architecture and resets its stabilization journey or suffers avoidable regression which may result in unimaginable economic backlash and preventable hardship worse than expected.
Present hardships remain undeniable. Inflation, currency adjustments, and subsidy withdrawal pains continue to test public resilience. However, reform evaluation must weigh trajectory alongside discomfort. Short-term strain preceding systemic recovery differs fundamentally from policy failure.
Measured against fiscal stabilization, investment inflows, infrastructure expansion, human capital financing, and institutional reforms, the administration’s trajectory reflects structural repositioning rather than episodic governance.
For voters, the strategic question is straightforward: whether to rotate leadership mid-construction or allow policy completion before rendering final judgment.
Nations that sustained reformers through full cycles often transitioned from stabilization to prosperity. Those that truncated mandates frequently recycled economic fragility.
Nigeria now stands at a decisive inflection point—foundation poured, scaffolding rising, structural systems embedded.
Continuity would not merely extend a presidency; it would determine whether the architecture of reform matures into visible national renewal—or remains an unfinished blueprint.
It therefore makes economic sense that President Tinubu ought to be supported for a second term without question in order to complete the reforms with visible gains for Nigeria and Nigerians.
Princess G. Adebajo-Fraser MFR.
President, the National Patriots.
