Nigeria’s crude oil production faces a major setback following an explosion at the Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) in Rivers State. The incident has raised concerns over the country’s ability to meet its 450,000 barrels per day output from the pipeline, further worsening its oil revenue struggles.
What Is the Trans-Niger Pipeline?
The Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) is a key oil transport route operated by Renaissance and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL). Spanning approximately 180 kilometers (112 miles), the pipeline carries crude oil from the Niger Delta to the Bonny Export Terminal in Rivers State.
Formerly operated by Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), the TNP is now managed by a consortium including Aradel Energy, First E&P, Waltersmith, ND Western, and Petroline. The pipeline plays a crucial role in Nigeria’s oil exports, making it one of the country’s most strategic oil infrastructure assets.
Impact of the Explosion on Oil Production
The Monday night explosion at the Bodo community, Gokana Local Government Area, has further strained Nigeria’s crude oil output, which was already struggling to meet the 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) OPEC quota.
Declining Production Figures
Recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and OPEC indicate that Nigeria’s oil production has been on a downward trend:
- January 2025: 1.73 million bpd
- February 2025: 1.67 million bpd (decline of 4.81%)
- Bonny Terminal Output: Dropped from 8.1 million barrels to 6.3 million barrels
- Forcados Terminal Output: Fell from 8.8 million barrels to 7.7 million barrels
- Erha, Egina, and Bonga Terminals also recorded significant output reductions.
Revenue Shortfalls Loom
The Nigerian government had projected a crude oil production of 2.06 million bpd in its ₦55 trillion 2025 budget, with an oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel. Oil revenue was expected to contribute 56% of total government income, but with output failing to meet expectations, there are growing fears of budgetary shortfalls.
Security and Economic Implications
The cause of the explosion remains under investigation, but authorities suspect sabotage or militant activity, especially given the ongoing political crisis in Rivers State. Two individuals have already been arrested in connection with the incident.
The attack on the TNP comes at a time when Nigeria is working to stabilize its oil production, reduce revenue losses, and regain investor confidence in its energy sector. If not quickly addressed, the explosion could lead to long-term disruptions in Nigeria’s oil exports, further deepening the country’s economic challenges.
