Lagos, Nigeria – As opposition voices grow louder with coalition theories and 2027 permutations, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT) is emerging not only as a sitting president but as a political case study—one whose strategic depth, survival instincts, and mastery of power dynamics have baffled even seasoned analysts.
In a recent televised discussion on Arise TV, a respected political professor stunned co-anchor Oseni Rufai with an incisive submission: “PBAT is not just a president; he is a political university.”
This statement, which has since gone viral, underscores a key reality that opposition actors—particularly those banking on emotion-driven coalitions—may be underestimating: defeating Tinubu is not a numbers game alone; it is a strategy war.
PBAT: A Political Journey Etched in Strategy
Bola Tinubu’s rise from a NADECO exile and pro-democracy fighter to the de facto national leader of Nigeria’s most dominant political machine is unmatched in recent Nigerian history. From defeating the PDP in Lagos in 2003 while every other Southwest state fell, to engineering the 2013 APC merger, and eventually retiring political titans like Atiku and Obi in 2023, Tinubu has consistently proved that electoral victory is less about noise and more about networks.
“Tinubu has a better political intelligence agency than the Nigerian state,” quipped political analyst Dayo Sobowale.
Why 2027 Will Not Be a Straightforward Contest
While opposition figures are busy floating slogans of unity and coalitions, analysts warn that Tinubu’s incumbency and federated grip over state structures, local governments, and traditional institutions gives him a grounded base from which to defend his mandate.
Factors Working in Tinubu’s Favour:
Political Machinery: Tinubu maintains control over APC’s internal structures and funding arms.
Grassroots Loyalty: His investment in youth mobilization, party loyalists, and cultural influencers remains consistent.
Geopolitical Strategy: He balances appointments, power blocs, and elite negotiations across North, Southwest, and minority regions.
Incumbency Advantage: Control of state apparatus, security networks, and federal patronage.
Opposition voices often fail to agree on a single ideology, candidate, or message—a lesson from 2023 yet to be learned. “Obi and Atiku split the anti-Tinubu vote and handed him victory. In 2027, any fragmented opposition will do the same,” says Dr. Chidi Nwosu, an Abuja-based political risk consultant.
Numbers Don’t Lie: A Look at 2023’s Results
In 2023, Tinubu won with 8.79 million votes, defeating Atiku Abubakar (6.98 million) and Peter Obi (6.1 million), despite losing the FCT and not dominating the Southeast or South-South.
What mattered was vote spread and strategic wins in key battleground states like Oyo, Borno, Rivers, and Kwara. He met the 25% threshold in 30 states, a constitutional requirement.
A 2027 victory would require replicating this feat. The key question: Can any opposition figure unify North and South, Christians and Muslims, old money and Gen-Z, under one banner? So far, no one has answered convincingly.
PBAT as a Political Course of Study
From the Lagos governance model to the APC consolidation playbook, universities and political think tanks are now studying Tinubu as a political phenomenon:
His use of “Jagaban branding” and Yoruba cultural identity fused with national aspirations.
Strategic alliances with former enemies (e.g., Wike).
His cold-blooded political survival instincts—outliving Obasanjo, outmaneuvering Atiku, and absorbing internal APC rebellion.
> “You don’t defeat Tinubu with sentiment. You study him like a course, pass the test, then think of running against him,” said Prof. Shehu Garba of the Ahmadu Bello University Political Science Department.
Conclusion: Beyond Opposition Coalitions, Strategy Wins Elections
PBAT is not unbeatable—but he is unmatchable without a superior strategy. Those shouting “coalition” for 2027 must recognize that coalition without coordination is confusion. Emotion is not strategy. Anger is not a manifesto. And social media is not the ballot box.
Tinubu’s presidency is a study in how power is acquired, defended, and sustained. As 2027 draws closer, one truth remains: to defeat him, his opponents must first understand him.
Until then, PBAT remains both president and political professor—lecturing a nation on the enduring art of power.
> “President Tinubu is not just playing politics—he’s scripting a textbook on political endurance. Anyone hoping to unseat him must not only count votes, but master the terrain, the timing, and the temperament of power.”
— Dr. Amiida Fraser, MFR, Governance Consultant & Political Strategist
Headlinenews.news special report.
