Nigeria Is Not a One-Sided Union – Southern Voices Push Back Against Hakeem Baba-Ahmed’s 2027 Threats
By Dr. G. Fraser. MFR The National Patriots
HeadlineNews.News Special Report
– April 23, 2025
Abuja, Nigeria – Tensions surrounding the 2027 presidential elections escalated this week following comments by Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a prominent northern elder and political figure, who warned that “nobody can become president without northern support”, and hinted that the North may “go its own way” if it does not get a fair deal in the next election cycle.
Baba-Ahmed’s statements, made in a recent video interview, have drawn sharp rebuke from Southern commentators and political thinkers who view his remarks as a veiled threat to national unity and a perpetuation of Northern political dominance, even after decades of disproportionate control over Nigeria’s federal leadership.
“The North has ruled Nigeria for 48 out of 65 years since independence. What else do they want?” asked Suyi Ayodele, a veteran columnist and public affairs analyst, in a widely circulated response..
1914 Amalgamation: A Marriage of Unequal Partners?
The foundation of Nigeria’s current national structure was laid in 1914, when Lord Frederick Lugard, acting on the directive of Lord Lewis Harcourt, amalgamated the Northern and Southern protectorates. Harcourt’s infamous quip that “the promising and well-conducted youth (the North) is now on allowance on his own and is about to marry a southern lady of means” has echoed through generations, reinforcing the perception of a forced and imbalanced union.
In the traditional African setting, the “husband” (the North) leads, while the “wife” (the South) provides. Over time, this patriarchal metaphor has morphed into political entitlement, where the North presumes an unchallengeable right to rule, while the South bears the burden of resource generation and economic development.
Power Dynamics: Who Really Holds the Balance?
Data shows that since 1960:
The North has produced 9 of Nigeria’s 15 heads of state or presidents, ruling for a combined 48 years.
The South has governed for just 17 years, a number that will rise to 19 by the end of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s current term in 2027.
Yet, despite this imbalance, Baba-Ahmed insists that the North is marginalized and warns of consequences if the region is not politically prioritized.
“If we plan to rig the election, it won’t be good for Nigeria. The North is watching,” Baba-Ahmed warned.
However, constitutional experts and electoral analysts note that no region in Nigeria can unilaterally install a president. Section 134(2) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) states that a presidential candidate must secure 25% of the votes in at least two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states (i.e., 24 states) to be declared winner.
With the North having only 19 states, any northern candidate would still require support from at least five southern states to meet this threshold.
The South Responds: Enough of the Intimidation
Across the South, Baba-Ahmed’s comments have been received as arrogant, divisive, and politically tone-deaf. Public sentiment continues to shift toward greater regional autonomy, true federalism, or in more extreme quarters, peaceful separation.
“Nigeria is a union. If one party no longer respects the marriage, the other has every right to seek a divorce,” says Dr. Ifeanyi Okonkwo, a political scientist.
From the creeks of the Niger Delta to the Yoruba heartland and Igbo southeast, there is growing fatigue with the centralist structure imposed by amalgamation, especially when political cooperation is reduced to threats, entitlement, and manipulation.
Historical Examples: Divided But Thriving
The world offers several examples of countries that split and still thrive:
Czechoslovakia split peacefully in 1993 into the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Both countries are now EU members with stable economies.
Sudan and South Sudan divided in 2011, with South Sudan now working to stabilize under its own flag.
Eritrea broke from Ethiopia after a 30-year war, and while it has its challenges, its independence remains intact.
Even the Soviet Union’s collapse gave rise to 15 independent states, many of which, like Estonia, Lithuania, and Georgia, have become sovereign democracies.
In each case, self-determination, not domination, became the key to peace and progress.
Conclusion: Unity Cannot Be Forced
The notion that one part of Nigeria holds the “deciding vote” and can unilaterally determine the country’s fate is no longer acceptable. If anything, such rhetoric reinforces the argument that Nigeria’s unity has become a one-sided bargain.
2027 should not be about power-grabbing through fear. It should be about vision, inclusion, and justice. And if Nigeria must remain one, it must be a union of equals—not a hostage situation.
To Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed and others who make veiled threats about “going their own way,” many in the South are now saying: “Please do. We’ve been waiting.”
Princess G. Adebajo-Fraser MFR.
The National Patriots.
Headlinenews.news Special Report.
“Nigeria Is Not a Northern Empire: South Pushes Back Against Baba-Ahmed’s 2027 Threats” – Elder Statesman.
“Marriage of Unequals: 1914 Amalgamation and the North’s Political Entitlement” – Member House of Representatives.
“South to North: We’re Not Afraid of 2027 — We Welcome Separation” – Distinguished Senator.
“Who Needs Who? Southern Voices Reject Northern Political Intimidation Ahead of 2027” – Dr. Amiida.
“Forced Unity No More: The South’s Message to Baba-Ahmed and Northern Irredentists” – HeadlineNews.News
“From Amalgamation to Alienation: Revisiting the Broken Promises of Nigeria’s Unity” – Prof Olawale.
“48 Years vs.19: Who’s Marginalised? A Reality Check for the North” – Former Governor.
“Czechoslovakia, Eritrea, Sudan: If They Split and Survived, Why Not Nigeria?” – Southern Youths Movement.
“Section 134(2) and the Myth of Northern Monopoly on the Presidency” – Legal Luminary.
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