By Dr. G. Fraser. MFR.
The National Patriots.
Headlinenews.News Policy & Governance Desk
July 3, 2025 | Abuja
The President with the Bitter Pill
As Nigeria confronts economic discomforts in 2025: rising inflation, public frustration, and subsidy withdrawals, some citizens are quick to blame President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the hardship. But a deeper, fact-based analysis tells a very different story.
Tinubu is not the cause of Nigeria’s pain.
He is the first leader in decades with the courage to confront it. What we are experiencing today is not new suffering—it is deferred suffering finally being confronted with a dose of economic truth.
This report examines the context, consequences, and comparative progress of Tinubu’s leadership, measured not by optics but by metrics, policies, and honest outcomes.
The Era of Delusion: Subsidies, Evasions, and Entitlement
For over 40 years, Nigeria was run on what analysts call an “entitlement economy”—a fantasy model in which:
- Fuel was heavily subsidized (₦6.7 trillion spent in just 2 years under Buhari)
- Electricity tariffs were unrealistically low
- Over 50% of eligible citizens paid no income tax
- Civil servants were paid, even when states couldn’t generate IGR
Meanwhile, citizens expected:
→ Free roads
→ Cheap education
→ 24/7 electricity
→ Miracle jobs
But revenue never matched expectations. And instead of telling the people the truth, leaders kicked the can down the road, borrowing recklessly while the national economy bloated with inefficiencies and corruption.
The Tinubu Doctrine: Ending the Fantasy, Facing the Facts
When President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, he inherited a fragile economy with:
- ₦77 trillion in public debt
- Over $1.5 billion monthly spent on petrol subsidies
- Weak tax-to-GDP ratio (7.4%), one of the lowest in Africa
What has he done differently?
Fuel Subsidy Removal: A Necessary Pain
Contrary to popular sentiment, the fuel subsidy regime did not benefit the average Nigerian. It benefitted:
- Fuel smugglers (who sold Nigeria’s subsidized fuel in Niger and Benin)
- A cabal of importers inflating figures
- Politicians who used subsidy budgets as slush funds
Tinubu ended it. Boldly, immediately.
It sparked inflation, yes. But it also closed a trillion-naira leak, freeing resources for actual development.
Tax Reform: Not More Tax, Just Fairer Tax
Tinubu’s administration didn’t increase VAT rates (still at 7.5%). Instead, it:
- Closed loopholes used by digital multinationals and luxury service providers
- Ensured withholding tax enforcement
- Brought high-income earners into the net
- Protected the poor and small businesses through threshold exemptions
“The burden is finally shifting to where it belongs—upward.”
— Dr. G. Fraser, MFR, Governance & Fiscal Equity Expert
Interest-Free Student Loans: First in Nigerian History
For the first time ever:
- Poor students in Nigeria can access interest-free loans
- Repayment begins only when they earn
- No debt traps, no collateral
This is not a gimmick; it is a structural investment in education equity, not band-aid palliatives.
Infrastructure with Revenue, Not Debt
For decades, Nigerian governments promised massive infrastructure but relied on:
- Unsustainable borrowing
- Chinese loans with sovereignty clauses
- Corrupt procurement
- Tinubu’s model focuses on:
- Domestic revenue generation
- Digital tax administration (FIRS, Customs)
- Blocking leakages
This means the roads, railways, refineries, and hospitals being planned under his administration will be paid for with real income, not IOUs.
Digital Governance: Choking the Corruption Supply Chain
Through digitization, the Tinubu administration is:
- Tracking contracts
- Removing ghost workers
- Enforcing payment transparency
- Eliminating informal leakages in Customs and IGR pipelines
The panic seen in some elite circles is not about bad governance; it’s about losing access to the loopholes they’ve exploited for decades.
Ghana vs. Nigeria: The Maturity Contrast
🇬🇭 Ghana Today:
VAT: 15–20%
Fuel Subsidy: None
Mobile Money Tax: Yes
Student Loans: None
Citizens: Compliant, Responsible
🇳🇬 Nigeria (2025):
VAT: 7.5%
Fuel Subsidy: Removed
Mobile Money Tax: Cancelled
Student Loans: Introduced
Citizens: Complaining loudly
“Nigeria is detoxing from decades of entitlement—but detox hurts,”
— Prof. Adewale Ibitoye, Public Finance Scholar
A Painful But Purposeful Detox
This isn’t hardship—it’s withdrawal from unsustainable economic illusions.
Pain is part of the process. But for once, it’s not pain for the profit of the powerful—it’s pain for the progress of the people.
The question is, will Nigerians be patient enough to see the transformation through?
The Bigger Picture: 2026 and Beyond
If the reforms hold, by 2026–2027, Nigeria could:
Surpass $50 billion in annual tax revenue
Reduce fuel importation by 40% (with refineries operational)
Implement 10,000 km of new roads
Double power generation
Build genuine local production capacity
But only if the country resists the temptation to reverse course.
Conclusion: Leadership Is Doing the Difficult Now
Tinubu is not perfect—no leader is.
But he is doing what Nigeria desperately needed decades ago:
Facing reality
Making hard decisions
Putting long-term national interest above populist applause
The cries today are real—but so is the vision. And that vision is of a Nigeria finally standing on its feet, not crawling on borrowed crutches.
Notable Quotes
> “Tinubu is not the problem—he’s just the first one with the courage to fix the problem.”
— Dr. G. Fraser, MFR
> “Nigeria’s economy isn’t broken. It was lied to. Now the truth is finally hurting.”
— Segun Akinlade, Public Policy Expert
> “We complained that previous leaders didn’t act. Now we complain that Tinubu is acting. What exactly do we want?”
— Rita Abaribe, Lagos-based Entrepreneur
© Headlinenews.News 2025. All Rights Reserved.
Report by Imran Khazaly, Senior Political Correspondent.
