El-Rufai’s Political Gambit: Calculations, Contradictions, and the 2027 Question.
By Dr. G. Fraser. MFR
Former Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai is again at the center of Nigeria’s shifting political currents. Once a key figure in the All Progressives Congress (APC), his career has been defined by high-risk moves, sharp rhetoric, and a survival instinct. His latest maneuvers, from leaving the APC, briefly aligning with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and now orbiting the litigation-plagued African Democratic Congress (ADC), show both ambition and hesitation.
From Kingmaker to Political Nomad
El-Rufai’s political résumé is colourful:
- 2003–2007: Minister of the FCT under President Obasanjo; built a reputation for decisive, often polarising, reforms.
- 2015–2023: Two-term Kaduna governor under the APC, known for hardline security positions and a central role in northern political strategy.
- Post-2023: Broke with APC leadership amid policy and personal rifts, sought a new base in the SDP before drifting toward the ADC.
His current caution in the ADC stems from two realities: the party’s ongoing legal disputes and the presence of veteran political heavyweights like Atiku Abubakar, whose presidential ambitions he once publicly dismantled with accusations of corruption and duplicity.
Contradictions in Alliance
In Akinlotan’s telling, El-Rufai now faces a self-inflicted contradiction: helping advance Atiku’s 2027 presidential bid despite his earlier scathing condemnations. The tension is compounded by emerging political realities, notably, a growing sentiment against another northern presidential candidate in 2027.
This opens two speculative escape routes:
- Positioning as a running mate to a southern candidate such as Peter Obi or Rotimi Amaechi.
- Biding time in the ADC until a viable non-Atiku coalition emerges.
The Rhetoric of Doom
El-Rufai’s political style has always been laced with stark warnings. He has described the APC as “dangerous to Nigeria’s future” and framed the 2027 polls as “the fight of our lives.” His son, Bashir, amplified this tone on social media, suggesting that “a few certain people have to kpai (die)” for Nigeria to become great — remarks that sparked outrage but were left unrebuked by the elder El-Rufai.
Such apocalyptic framing has long been part of his political playbook: during his governorship, he repeatedly warned that Nigeria’s unity was at risk without radical policy change.
ADC’s Uncertain Platform
The ADC itself is hardly a stable vehicle. Beset by internal legal challenges and competing factions, it has yet to show the electoral muscle needed to dislodge the APC nationally. For El-Rufai, the ADC may be less a committed home and more a provisional perch — one from which to launch an eventual bid or secure strategic relevance in coalition politics.
Historical Parallels & Risk Factors
Nigeria has seen similar realignments before:
- 1998–1999: Politicians migrated en masse from the collapsed UNCP to new formations like the PDP, reshaping the electoral map.
- 2013–2015: APC’s formation from multiple opposition parties allowed regional heavyweights to negotiate power-sharing deals, often setting aside past insults for strategic gain.
The risk in El-Rufai’s case is that repeated shifts without a clear ideological anchor may erode credibility, making alliances fragile and voter trust harder to win.
2027 Outlook
If the anti-northern sentiment in presidential politics solidifies, El-Rufai’s path narrows:
- Most likely scenario: Align with a southern presidential candidate, leveraging his northern base for a vice-presidential slot.
- Least likely scenario: Mount an independent presidential bid via the ADC — unless the party resolves its internal crises and builds a credible nationwide network within two years.
Either way, his ability to reconcile past rhetoric with present alliances will be critical. Nigerian politics is tolerant of opportunism, but voters and elite powerbrokers alike remember deep personal attacks — especially when aimed at figures like Atiku.
El-Rufai’s political brand is built on boldness and survival instincts, but the contradictions in his current alliances and his habit of incendiary rhetoric could limit his 2027 prospects. In the volatile terrain of Nigerian politics, adaptability is an asset — but without a stable platform and coherent narrative, it can look like drift.
Headlinenews.news Special Publication.
