Lagos has been APC’s stronghold since 1999, the foundation of President Bola Tinubu’s political legacy. But insiders warn the fortress is cracking: loyal grassroots members are sidelined, supervisors are replaced with elites’ relatives, and trust in party leaders is collapsing.
Meanwhile, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has seized the moment, attracting Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour—who won over 312,000 votes in 2023—and drawing disillusioned APC members into its fold.
The stakes are enormous: Lagos is Nigeria’s second-largest voting bloc, yet voter turnout has plummeted from 41% in 1999 to just 6% in 2021 local polls. If APC fails to repair itself, low morale and defections could hand the opposition a shocking victory in 2027.
History shows the danger. PDP’s collapse in Lagos, APC’s losses in Oyo (2019) and Osun (2022) all prove one point: ignoring grassroots destroys ruling parties.
The Call to Action
Stakeholders demand immediate damage control:
A Presidential Intervention Committee of neutral APC elders,
A Grassroots Perception Index to monitor loyalty and mobilise the grassroots in a tactical, strategic way.
An end to nepotistic appointments in Lagos.
And direct reassurance from Tinubu himself.
The message is clear: act now—or risk losing Lagos, the crown jewel of APC’s empire, in 2027
