In a dramatic disclosure at today’s Meet the Press with State House correspondents, Dr. Zacch A. Adedeji, Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), unveiled numbers that stunned many observers. He revealed that Nigeria’s federal revenue collections leapt from ₦711 billion in May 2023 to ₦3.635 trillion in September 2025—a jaw-dropping 411 percent increase.
But that was not all. He also announced that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) made its first-ever remittance of ₦111 billion into the federation coffers.
According to Adedeji, this performance is proof that the sweeping tax reforms and compliance drives under President Bola Tinubu are beginning to reshape Nigeria’s fiscal trajectory. He assured that the new tax regime set to take effect in January 2026 will not overburden citizens, but will strengthen efficiency, expand the tax base, and provide sustainable funding for social interventions.
“This is not random luck,” Adedeji said. “It is the direct outcome of bold reforms, digital tools, and a culture of compliance.”
Behind the Numbers: What the Surge Means
Revenue Breakdown & Comparative Growth
The gains were broad-based:
Non-oil revenue rose sharply from ₦151 billion to ₦1.056 trillion, a 599 percent jump
Oil receipts (via FIRS’ remit) rose from ₦96 billion to ₦644 billion, a 571 percent jump
VAT, customs, excise, and other taxes all posted double- or triple-digit growth
Regulatory bodies like NUPRC and the Customs Service also recorded substantial uplifts
The NNPC remittance of ₦111 billion marks a symbolic turning point—bearing witness to cooperation between the oil sector and revenue authorities
These numbers align with other macro glimpses: in the first eight months of 2025, FIRS has already collected ₦20.62 trillion, outperforming many earlier projections.
Observers say this is the most significant broad-based revenue expansion in recent memory, amid years of stagnation and missed targets.
Historical Context & Expectations
During the previous administrations, Nigeria’s reliance on oil — and vulnerability to price swings — constrained fiscal stability. Reforms, when they came, were often criticized as half-hearted or poorly enforced.
But this current leap sends a message: when systems are tightened, leaks plugged, and compliance enforced, the revenue base can expand rapidly. What was once considered “impossible” is now within view.
Still, skeptics warn against over-optimism. Even with these gains, federal borrowing remains significant. Adedeji responded to critics by noting that borrowing is part of the approved 2025 budget and can be strategically deployed for infrastructure that pays for itself over time.
Are Tinubu’s Reforms Working? Evidence and Skepticism
Reform Pillars That Drove the Surge
Adedeji credited the rally to a confluence of initiatives:
1. Digitalization & tech tools – e-invoicing, improved data matching, automated audit systems
2. Rationalization of tax incentives – cutting or tightening waivers that had become loopholes
3. Harmonization of levies – working with states to reduce overlapping taxes and friction
4. Presumptive tax regimes – designed to bring informal or under-taxed sectors into the system
5. Enforcement and compliance drive – penalties, audits, and active pursuit of tax defaulters
He claimed the “culture of compliance” is gaining ground, even among small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
Moreover, government projections now rest on higher baselines. For instance, FIRS expects to hit ₦25.2 trillion in total revenue for 2025 if current momentum is sustained.
Points of Skepticism
Sustainability: Can such growth be maintained, or is this a one-time spike due to reforms and deferred receipts?
Borrowing vs. revenue substitution: Even with rising revenue, the government may still rely heavily on borrowing, which raises concerns about debt sustainability. Adedeji defends it as strategic.
Leakages & transparency: Some critics worry these figures mask off-book inflows, timing games, or future reversals.
Real social impact: It remains to be seen how much of this extra revenue trickles down to health, education, infrastructure, and welfare.
Nonetheless, for a government long accused of failing to raise domestic resources, this is a powerful proof-of-concept.
NNPC’s Remittance: Symbolism Meets Substance
The announcement that NNPC remitted ₦111 billion is groundbreaking. After years of accusations that the national oil company withheld funds or channeled them off-budget, this step signals growing alignment with revenue agencies.
NNPC’s broader remittances have surged: in the first half of 2025 alone, over ₦7.96 trillion was remitted to the federation account.
If sustained, this can help reduce dependence on external borrowing and generate more fiscal breathing room for government spending priorities.
What This Means for Nigeria’s Economy & Social Contract
1. Stronger revenue base → less dependence on oil
The acceleration in non-oil revenue is particularly promising for a long-awaited transition to a more diversified, resilient economy.
2. Fiscal space for social cushions
With more internally generated funds, the government can better afford safety nets, subsidies, infrastructure, and human capital investments.
3. More credible debt management
If the revenue trajectory holds, borrowing can be better matched with revenue inflows, reducing fiscal stress on future budgets.
4. Political capital for reformers
These numbers give President Tinubu and his economic team much-needed legitimacy in pushing harder reforms in tax, subsidy removal, and public finance.
5. Investor confidence
A consistent upward turn in revenue can attract investor confidence—foreign and domestic—if backed by transparency and predictable policy.
Voices & Reactions
Dr. Zacch Adedeji (FIRS): “We aimed not merely for revenue growth but for a reliable, fair, and sustainable system. This surge validates the reforms—yet we must not rest on these laurels.”
Budget analysts / economists: Some caution that the government must translate these inflows into visible service delivery, or risk public disillusionment.
Civil Society’s Skeptical View
Not everyone is celebrating. Civil society groups contend that the so-called revenue miracle is less about bold innovation and more about enforcing long-standing rules. “They did nothing new,” one activist remarked, arguing that the FIRS is taking credit for structural changes that should have been implemented years ago.
They further note that the gains are not yet reflected in inflation indices—with food prices, transport costs, and rent still rising, ordinary Nigerians feel little respite. Others raise a sharper concern: what exactly are the Federal Government and governors doing with the splurge of higher FAAC distributions?
Without visible improvements in infrastructure, healthcare, or education, critics warn, these record-breaking figures risk becoming numbers without impact. For skeptics, until revenues translate into lower living costs, social investment, and better governance, the boom remains a paper victory.
Conclusion & Outlook
The revelation of a 411% revenue surge and NNPC remittance marks a defining moment in Nigeria’s fiscal history. It is concrete evidence that Tinubu’s revenue reforms are not merely rhetoric—they are producing results.
But success is not guaranteed. The government must convert these numbers into tangible improvements—roads, power, education, health—to convince skeptics that it is not just collecting more, but delivering more.
As January 2026 approaches and new tax measures roll out, the test will be whether Nigerians perceive fairness, relief, and progress—with government accountability to match the aspirations.
If these gains hold, Nigeria may be turning a long corner—from a nation of subsidy dependence and revenue shortfalls—to one that can fund its own future.
Princess G. Adebajo-Fraser MFR.
The National Patriots.
