The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Nigeria’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will drop to 36.4% in 2025 and further to 35% in 2026, before edging up to 35.3% in 2027.
At the 2025 IMF/World Bank annual meetings, the IMF released its latest Fiscal Monitor report, in which it projected that Nigeria’s debt burden will ease over the medium term.
Nigeria’s public debt-to-GDP ratio was 39.4% in Q1 2025, following a rebasing of GDP by the National Bureau of Statistics.
During the report launch, David Furceri, Division Chief in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, urged Nigeria to strengthen its revenue base and overhaul its tax administration system.
He noted that Nigeria’s recent tax reforms—such as reducing tax expenditures and simplifying the tax code—were steps in the right direction, lightening the burden on businesses and low-income groups.
On the expenditure side, Furceri said there is room for improving efficiency in public spending, while also protecting social spending to support vulnerable households and promote inclusive growth.
The IMF described its recommended fiscal approach for Nigeria as “neutral”, meaning that fiscal policy should neither overly stimulate nor overly contract the economy, thereby avoiding distortions while still helping to tame inflation.
