2026 BUDGET ADDRESS:
By Princess G Adebajo-Fraser MFR.
The National Patriots.
Policy, Security & Governance Analysis
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2026 Budget Address was delivered at a defining moment for Nigeria—one marked by persistent insecurity, rising fiscal pressure, porous borders, and an urgent need to rebuild human capital.
While the budget reflects the administration’s commitment to macroeconomic stabilisation and reform continuity, a detailed examination of sectoral allocations—particularly defence, education, and health—raises important questions about strategic adequacy, alignment with national realities, and long-term sustainability.
This report provides an objective assessment of the 2026 budget using historical context, sectoral analysis, and international benchmarks, with the aim of strengthening public understanding and informing urgent policy reconsideration where national interests are at stake.
Overview of the 2026 Federal Budget
The 2026 Appropriation Bill proposes:
Total expenditure: ₦58.18 trillion (≈ $41.6bn)
Projected revenue: ₦34.33 trillion (≈ $24.5bn)
Fiscal deficit: ₦23.85 trillion (≈ $17.0bn)
Debt service: ₦15.52 trillion (≈ $11.1bn)
The size of the deficit underscores a structural challenge: Nigeria is attempting to meet security and development obligations under heavy debt-service constraints. In this context, borrowing must be assessed not by its size alone, but by its purpose and expected national return.
Sectoral Allocations Highlighted in the Budget Speech
The President outlined the following key allocations:
Defence and Security: ₦5.41 trillion (≈ $3.86bn)
Education: ₦3.52 trillion (≈ $2.51bn)
Health: ₦2.48 trillion (≈ $1.77bn)
Infrastructure: ₦3.56 trillion (≈ $2.54bn)
As proportions of total expenditure, these represent approximately:
Defence and security: ~9.3%
Education: ~6.1%
Health: ~4.3%
Defence and Security: Capability Requirements Versus Fiscal Provision
Strategic Context
Nigeria’s security challenges are complex and multi-dimensional, encompassing terrorism, insurgency, banditry, cross-border crime, arms trafficking, maritime insecurity, and vulnerabilities in airspace and communications.
These threats demand integrated, intelligence-led, and technology-driven security architecture, rather than reliance on manpower and legacy systems alone.
Comparative Perspective
Country Defence Spending Approx. USD
Nigeria (2026) ₦5.41tn ~$3.86bn
Algeria — ~$18bn
Egypt — ~$10bn+
South Africa — ~$2.8bn
Israel — ~$24bn
Saudi Arabia — ~$75bn
Nigeria’s security exposure aligns more closely with high-risk states than with low-conflict peers, yet its defence allocation remains comparatively modest.
Assessment
At ₦5.41 trillion, the defence allocation faces significant constraints in addressing:
Nationwide border surveillance across approximately 4,070km of land borders
Persistent airspace monitoring
Deployment of modern ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) systems
Interoperable operations among the Armed Forces, Police, DSS, Immigration, Customs, and allied agencies
Sustained counterterrorism operations alongside modernisation
From a strategic policy standpoint, a defence allocation in the range of:
₦15 trillion (≈ $10.7bn) as a minimum credible threshold, and
₦20 trillion (≈ $14.3bn) as a more realistic level for comprehensive modernisation
would better align fiscal planning with Nigeria’s security realities—provided such funding is tied to transparent procurement, integrated systems, and measurable outcomes.
Defence Budget Formulation and Operational Alignment
A further issue affecting the effectiveness of defence spending is how defence budgets are formulated.
The defence allocation reflected in the 2026 proposal was prepared under previous ministerial leadership without direct counterterrorism or military operational background, which may have contributed to a budget structure that does not fully reflect current battlefield, border-security, and technology requirements.
Given Nigeria’s security environment, there is a strong case for allowing the current Minister of Defence, General Christopher C. Musa, to present a revised defence budget framework informed by operational experience and contemporary security needs.
Such an approach would strengthen:
Alignment between funding and operational requirements
Realism in capability planning
Accountability for security outcomes
This is a matter of institutional effectiveness, not personalities, and could significantly improve the prospects of translating defence spending into measurable security gains.
Education: Investment Levels and National Consequences
2026 Allocation
Education receives ₦3.52 trillion (≈ $2.51bn), representing just over 6% of total federal expenditure.
International Benchmarks
UNESCO recommends 15–20% of national budgets for education. Comparative allocations include:
Country Education (% of Budget)
Ghana ~15–20%
Kenya ~16–18%
Rwanda ~15–17%
Nigeria ~6%
Implications
Education spending at current levels constrains:
Institutional stability in tertiary education
Research and innovation capacity
Workforce readiness and productivity
Resolution of recurrent industrial actions in the sector
Sustained investment in education is central not only to development but also to long-term security and social stability.
Health: Persistent Gap Between Commitment and Allocation
The health sector allocation of ₦2.48 trillion (≈ $1.77bn) remains well below the 15% benchmark adopted under the Abuja Declaration.
Underinvestment in health weakens:
National resilience
Labour productivity
Emergency preparedness
Household economic security
Health expenditure should be viewed as a strategic investment in human capital, not merely a social obligation.
Other Strategic Sectors Requiring Stronger Fiscal Clarity
Beyond defence, education, and health, the budget speech suggests the need for clearer prioritisation and scale in:
Agriculture and food security
Internal security and policing modernisation
Border management agencies
Justice and criminal justice systems
Social protection mechanisms
Greater transparency in functional allocations would strengthen public confidence and policy accountability.
Borrowing and National Interest
With a projected deficit of ₦23.85 trillion (≈ $17.0bn), public concern about borrowing is understandable. However, borrowing is most defensible when directed toward:
Security modernisation that reduces violence and protects economic activity
Education systems that raise productivity and employment outcomes
Health systems that safeguard human capital
The larger risk lies in insufficient investment in sectors critical to national survival and competitiveness.
Conclusion
The 2026 budget reflects intent and reform momentum, but intent must be matched by strategic alignment.
Nigeria’s security, education, and health challenges require funding levels that reflect their centrality to sovereignty, stability, and sustainable development. As the budget advances through legislative review, there remains an urgent opportunity to recalibrate allocations—particularly in defence and education—to ensure that fiscal policy aligns with Nigeria’s present realities and future ambitions.
Princess Gloria Adebajo-Fraser MFR.
The National Patriots.
Policy Analysis | National Security | Governance
Special Adviser Strategy, Research & Planning to Former President Goodluck Jonathan.
