For close to two years, Rivers State has remained Nigeria’s most volatile political battlefield — a place where authority is fiercely contested, political godfathers rarely fade quietly, and alliances shift without warning. What was initially designed as a smooth succession plan in 2023 has evolved into a full-blown political confrontation involving President Bola Tinubu, former Rivers governor and current FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, and the sitting governor, Siminalayi Fubara.
At various points, each of the three power brokers appeared firmly in control, only to later seem politically exposed. As 2025 draws to a close, however, the political tide in Rivers is moving in an unexpected direction. The once-underestimated governor, often portrayed as weak and disposable, has re-emerged as a formidable force — one capable of dismantling Wike’s entrenched dominance and reshaping Tinubu’s calculations ahead of the 2027 elections.
From chosen successor to rival
Fubara’s rise to the governorship in 2023 was widely credited to Wike’s political influence. As outgoing governor, Wike handpicked him as the PDP candidate and deployed his well-oiled political machinery to secure victory. Initially, their relationship appeared seamless — a loyal successor inheriting power from a dominant godfather.
That illusion quickly collapsed after Fubara assumed office. Disputes over state finances, appointments, party control and legislative authority soon erupted. The Rivers State House of Assembly, dominated by Wike loyalists, became the epicentre of the conflict.
By October 2023, tensions escalated dramatically when the Assembly complex was bombed — an incident widely linked to an alleged impeachment plot. The event stunned the nation and signaled that Rivers politics had entered a dangerous phase.
Governance under siege
The bombing ushered in prolonged instability. Lawmakers split into rival factions, producing two speakers — Martin Amaewhule for the Wike bloc and Edison Ehie for Fubara’s camp. Legal battles multiplied, climbing from state courts to the Supreme Court.
Development stalled, governance slowed, and investor confidence weakened. For residents, the political crisis became an exhausting constant, with Rivers’ vast economic potential trapped in elite power struggles. Mediation efforts by party leaders and national figures failed, turning the crisis into a national concern by early 2025.
Emergency rule and political exile
On March 18, 2025, President Tinubu declared emergency rule, suspending Governor Fubara, his deputy, and the entire State Assembly. A sole administrator, Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas (retd.), was appointed for six months.
The decision triggered widespread debate over its legality, but politically, it signaled Abuja’s frustration. Fubara was sidelined, ridiculed by critics and written off as politically finished, while Wike appeared more powerful than ever. Yet beneath the surface, dynamics were quietly changing.
After the storm
Emergency rule brought temporary calm but at the cost of democratic governance. When it ended in September 2025, Fubara returned under restrictive conditions, including cabinet reshuffles that alienated some allies but bought him breathing room.
Rather than confront his opponents head-on, the governor adopted a strategy of patience. As political tensions resurfaced in December, lawmakers accused his administration of neglecting public schools, a charge Fubara countered by pointing to years of systemic decay and promising increased education funding in 2026.
Behind the scenes, however, a more decisive battle was unfolding.
Lawmakers switch sides
In a dramatic development, at least 17 pro-Wike lawmakers defected from the PDP to the APC, citing internal crises within the opposition party. The move was widely seen as political self-preservation ahead of 2027.
Their defection created a strange scenario: an APC-controlled Assembly confronting a PDP governor. But the real shock was yet to come.
Fubara’s strategic realignment
Unknown to many, Fubara had quietly established direct communication with President Tinubu, bypassing Wike entirely. By the time Wike sensed the shift and attempted damage control, Tinubu’s priorities had changed.
For the President, Rivers State’s stability outweighed loyalty to any single political actor. While Wike had delivered in 2023, his confrontational approach was increasingly viewed as a liability. Fubara, on the other hand, held constitutional authority, grassroots acceptance and control of state structures.
Crossing over
On December 9, Fubara formally defected from the PDP to the APC, publicly declaring allegiance to Tinubu. The move was swift and symbolic. Within days, he was officially registered as an APC member, effectively becoming the party’s leading figure in Rivers State.
Party leaders openly pledged their support, describing his decision as timely and strategic. In a single move, Fubara altered Rivers’ political landscape.
A godfather outplayed
Fubara’s defection marked a turning point. For the first time, Wike appeared politically cornered. Sources in Abuja suggest Tinubu now views Fubara as the more valuable asset — a leader capable of delivering stability and genuine grassroots support.
Prominent figures, including former governor Peter Odili, endorsed the move, arguing that Rivers’ alignment with the federal government would bring tangible benefits. Women groups and other stakeholders have also rallied behind Fubara, boosting his prospects beyond 2027.
Unfinished business
Despite the realignment, tensions remain. Lawmakers who once sought Fubara’s removal now share his party, raising questions about loyalty and reconciliation. Rivers’ political history suggests that godfathers rarely survive indefinitely — and analysts believe Fubara may be next in line to dismantle an entrenched power structure.
From political exile to strategic kingmaker, Fubara’s journey reflects patience, resilience and calculated timing. As 2027 approaches, Rivers State has become a testing ground for Tinubu’s broader strategy of power consolidation — and Fubara is no longer a pawn in that game, but a central player.
