Nigeria Cuts Fuel Import Bill By 54% In Two Years Amid Rising Local Refining
Nigeria’s spending on imported refined petroleum products has plunged by 54% over two years, falling from $14.58 billion in the first nine months of 2023 to $6.71 billion in the same period of 2025, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Balance of Payments report.
The decline was gradual, dropping to $11.38 billion in the corresponding period of 2024 before falling sharply to $6.71 billion within nine months of 2025. A comparative analysis of the 2023 and 2024 full-year data alongside Q3 2025 figures, reviewed by The PUNCH, highlights a steady moderation in fuel importation.
Between January and September 2024, Nigeria spent $11.38 billion on refined petroleum imports—a $3.20 billion (21.9%) decrease from the same period in 2023. In 2025, the trend accelerated, with imports dropping another $4.67 billion (41%) to $6.71 billion, marking the steepest year-on-year contraction in the period analysed. Overall, this represents a $7.87 billion reduction compared to 2023, easing foreign exchange outflows linked to petroleum product imports.
The CBN data also signal early signs of import substitution as new and rehabilitated domestic refineries ramp up production. Analysts attribute the decline to structural reforms, subsidy removal in 2023, tighter foreign exchange management, and the expansion of local refining capacity, including the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki.
Energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare cautioned that while reliance on imports has reduced, it has not ended. In his paper, “Dangote Refinery, Petrol Imports, and Market Reality,” Iledare said the refinery has improved domestic supply but does not fully determine national fuel availability. He stressed that Nigeria’s downstream petrol market operates within an oligopolistic, import-parity framework where imports remain a key tool for price stability, demand surges, and stock security.
“The appropriate policy framing should focus on reduced marginal import dependence, not outright import elimination,” Iledare noted, warning that misleading claims could undermine policy credibility.
Jeremiah Olatide, CEO of petroleumprice.ng, described the 54% decline in fuel import spending as a major shift in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector. He said the Dangote Refinery’s daily supply of over 50 million litres of petroleum products is gradually boosting energy security and reducing the country’s import reliance.
Quarterly data from the BoP report show that refined fuel imports fell steadily in 2025, from $3.26 billion in Q1 to $1.80 billion in Q2, and $1.65 billion in Q3. Despite the decline in petroleum imports, Nigeria’s overall import bill rose due to growth in non-oil imports, which reached $7.08 billion in Q3. Meanwhile, earnings from crude oil, gas, and refined products increased to $13.05 billion, with crude oil accounting for $8.45 billion. Gas exports, however, fell sharply by 30.2% quarter-on-quarter due to infrastructure constraints and global market pressures.
While the drop in refined fuel imports reflects progress in domestic production, analysts caution that Nigeria’s journey to full energy self-sufficiency remains incomplete. Sustainable supply will depend on consistent operations of local refineries, adequate infrastructure, and continued regulatory and market reforms.
