Nigeria’s political and economic history shows a familiar cycle—bold corrections are initiated, early hardship sets in, but leadership transitions often interrupt consolidation before citizens feel the benefits.
Structural national turnaround is never immediate; it unfolds in phases requiring policy continuity, fiscal discipline, and institutional patience.
It is within this context that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s governance programme must be assessed.
His administration’s policy direction—spanning fiscal restructuring, infrastructure expansion, human capital investment, and national reorientation—represents one of the most far-reaching recalibration efforts in Nigeria’s modern history.
The case for 2027 continuity rests fundamentally on converting stabilization into visible prosperity.
From the outset, the administration confronted two of Nigeria’s most distortionary fiscal burdens—fuel subsidy and multiple exchange rates.
Both had drained public finance for decades while encouraging arbitrage and discouraging productive investment.
Their removal and unification halted unsustainable fiscal hemorrhage and restored transparency to the currency framework.
Though politically difficult, the measures signaled seriousness to investors and global financial institutions long wary of Nigeria’s policy inconsistencies.
The fiscal response was consequential.
Government revenues expanded sharply, reaching over ₦31.9 trillion in 2024, with some reporting cycles indicating near doubling compared to pre-adjustment inflows.
This strengthened government capacity to fund capital projects and social programmes without excessive borrowing.
Correspondingly, the fiscal deficit narrowed from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to about 3.0% in 2024—reflecting tightening discipline and improved expenditure efficiency.
External buffers also strengthened.
Foreign reserves rose significantly—from critically low levels to over $23 billion, with peaks reported near $46 billion by late 2024. Stronger reserves improved Nigeria’s ability to absorb global shocks and supported confidence in the naira.
Consecutive trade surpluses reinforced balance-of-payments stability and moderated currency volatility.
Export diversification has been another structural gain.
Non-oil exports approaching nearly 48% of total exports signal movement away from hydrocarbon dependence.
This transition enhances economic resilience and positions Nigeria for industrial competitiveness. Investor sentiment mirrored these gains, with the Nigerian Exchange recording approximately 48% growth in 2025—reflecting renewed private-sector confidence and capital formation.
Credit outlook improvements and rising foreign direct investment—particularly within fintech and the digital economy—have lowered sovereign risk perception while fueling job-creating ventures.
With GDP growth projections exceeding 4% annually, macroeconomic stabilization appears to be transitioning toward expansion, provided policy continuity is sustained.
Human capital development forms the second pillar of this national turnaround.
Through the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), tertiary education financing has expanded to hundreds of thousands of students, dismantling tuition barriers and promoting workforce competitiveness.
Entrepreneurship interventions have also reached over 900,000 Nigerians through grants and concessional loans, stimulating enterprise growth and supporting SMEs.
The upward revision of the national minimum wage to ₦70,000 represents a deliberate effort to cushion cost-of-living pressures while sustaining purchasing power.
Educational infrastructure renewal has advanced as well, with ₦80 billion allocated to upgrade facilities across 100 federal unity schools.
Revitalization of almajiri education through learning centres, policy reforms, and model schools directly addresses one of Nigeria’s most consequential social vulnerabilities—mass out-of-school populations.
Infrastructure expansion remains the physical backbone of national recovery.
Strategic highway corridors—including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road, Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway, Abuja-Kaduna-Kano Road, and Lagos-Ibadan Expressway—are redefining logistics mobility and trade connectivity. Over ₦2 trillion committed to road infrastructure underscores long-term economic planning.
Port modernization—linking Tin Can Island upgrades with Lekki Deep Sea Port operations—alongside rail expansion is improving cargo evacuation efficiency and export competitiveness.
Energy decentralization through the Electricity Act has unlocked sub-national generation authority, encouraging private investment and diversifying Nigeria’s power architecture.
Housing interventions under the Renewed Hope Programme—including diaspora mortgage schemes and nationwide construction—are expanding housing supply while generating employment. Projects such as the 3,500-unit Renewed Hope City in Abuja illustrate federal ambition in addressing Nigeria’s housing deficit.
Security stabilization remains integral to economic recovery.
Intensified military operations leading to the neutralization of over 13,500 insurgents have restored farming activity, reopened trade routes, and improved civilian mobility in affected regions.
Nation-building initiatives extend beyond economics.
Reward systems for women’s sports champions have strengthened national pride and youth inspiration.
Digital identity enrollment exceeding 126 million Nigerians enhances governance efficiency, welfare targeting, and fraud reduction.
Comparative global experiences reinforce the continuity argument.
India’s liberalization reforms required sustained leadership cycles before delivering high growth.
Brazil’s stabilization policies gained traction only through continuity.
Indonesia’s restructuring and Rwanda’s developmental governance similarly demonstrate that national turnaround programmes yield results only when reform phases are allowed to mature into prosperity cycles.
Nigeria’s present phase is therefore transitional—moving from stabilization to visible gain. The heavy lifting—fiscal correction, currency realignment, infrastructure rollout, and institutional restructuring—constitutes foundational work whose benefits materialize progressively.
Interrupting this trajectory risks slowing momentum and weakening investor confidence.
Humanitarian Delivery Imperative.
While endorsing the administration’s policy direction, the National Patriots Movement maintains that economic restructuring must be complemented by visible, people-centric humanitarian delivery.
The group has therefore advised the Presidency to institutionalize a Strategic Presidential Committee on Special Intervention Projects to directly coordinate targeted relief and livelihood programmes nationwide.
According to the group, over-reliance on sub-national implementation frameworks has created delivery gaps, with many governors failing to translate federal relief allocations into tangible citizen impact.
This, they argue, has prolonged hardship perception despite ongoing macroeconomic stabilization.
The Patriots note that while substantial federal resources have been earmarked for social transfers, accountability concerns and beneficiary opacity have weakened public confidence in cash-based interventions.
They advocate instead for structured, project-tied safety nets—food systems support, transport subsidies, health access schemes, small-enterprise grants, and community infrastructure—capable of delivering measurable grassroots relief.
Such an approach, they contend, would humanize the national turnaround process, reinforce public trust, and demonstrate that economic adjustments are matched with compassionate governance.
National Patriots Endorsement.
In its concluding position, the National Patriots Movement formally endorsed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term based on the structural performance of his administration so far.
The group maintained that Nigeria’s ongoing recovery programme was conceived as a long-horizon national reset requiring policy continuity to reach full maturation.
With stabilization gains already recorded, completing the turnaround beyond 2027, they argued, is essential to convert present sacrifices into visible prosperity, institutional strength, and enduring national renewal for Nigerians.
Princess G. Adebajo-Fraser MFR.
President, the National Patriots.
