By Headlinenews.news Economic Policy & Fiscal Strategy Desk.
Nigeria’s external trade trajectory between 2015 and 2025 provides a critical macroeconomic lens for assessing the impact of ongoing reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu — particularly amid public debate over inflation, currency volatility, and cost-of-living pressures.
Trade balance — the difference between export earnings and import payments — remains one of the strongest determinants of dollar liquidity within any economy.
When deficits persist, foreign reserves tighten, currency pressure mounts, and import financing becomes strained.
Conversely, sustained surpluses expand FX buffers, stabilise exchange markets, and strengthen macroeconomic confidence.
Deficit Cycle and Dollar Scarcity Pressures.
Between 2015 and 2020, Nigeria’s trade structure oscillated under deficit pressures driven by oil price shocks, production disruptions, and heavy import dependence.
During deficit years, Nigeria spent more dollars on imports — refined petroleum, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and food — than it earned from exports.
The structural imbalance translated directly into FX scarcity.
Consequences included:
• Restricted dollar supply
• FX rationing mechanisms
• Parallel market expansion
• Widening official/black market gaps
• Reserve drawdowns and external borrowing.
At peak distortion, the spread between official and parallel exchange rates widened sharply — reflecting supply shortages rather than speculative demand alone.
Import Dependence as Structural Drag.
Nigeria’s import-heavy consumption architecture intensified deficit exposure.
Fuel imports alone consumed billions annually due to domestic refining shortfalls, while food imports and manufactured goods widened the payments bill further.
Without export diversification, dollar outflows consistently exceeded inflows.
Surplus Recovery Momentum.
From 2021 onward, trade performance began rebounding, supported by oil price recovery, export earnings improvement, and import compression dynamics.
By 2023–2025, surplus expansion strengthened significantly — improving reserve buffers and easing FX supply pressures. Nigeria has recorded multiple consecutive quarterly trade surpluses in the reform period.
Stronger export performance and moderated imports have reinforced external liquidity.
Comparative Trade Balance.
Nigeria Trade Balance Trend (Goods Trade).
Year
Trade Position
2015
Deficit
2016
Deficit
2017
Surplus
2018
Surplus
2019
Surplus
2020
Deficit
2021
Deficit / Volatile
2022
Surplus
2023
Surplus
2024
Surplus
2025
Surplus (Strengthening)
(Data pattern derived from NBS / global trade datasets)
The structural contrast between deficit-heavy years and surplus recovery cycles underscores the evolving external position of the Nigerian economy.
Tinubu Reform Architecture and FX Liberalisation.
The Tinubu administration introduced exchange-rate unification and currency floatation — ending the multi-window regime that had fragmented FX pricing.
Rather than defending the naira through reserve depletion, reforms allowed market-reflective valuation.
Immediate impacts included depreciation and inflation pass-through — but structurally, the reforms triggered corrective adjustments:
• Export competitiveness improved
• Import demand moderated
• Remittance inflows formalised
• Investor transparency confidence rose
• Arbitrage distortions reduced.
FX liberalisation has historically restored trade equilibrium in reforming economies.
Export Incentive Effect
Currency floatation tends to stimulate exports.
Agricultural commodities, solid minerals, and manufactured goods become globally price-competitive when domestic currency weakens.
This structural incentive supports surplus expansion and dollar inflows over time.
Comparative Policy Lens.
Countries that delayed FX reforms — Argentina and Venezuela — suffered prolonged dollar shortages.
Conversely, India, Egypt, and Vietnam restored liquidity and export growth after exchange-rate unification.
Nigeria’s current pathway aligns with orthodox stabilisation frameworks.
Why Trade Surplus Matters to Citizens.
Trade balance directly affects daily economic life.
Dollar availability supports:
• Industrial raw material imports
• Aviation obligations
• Energy infrastructure
• Pharmaceutical supply chains
• Education and medical remittances.
External liquidity is the bloodstream of economic functionality.
Correcting Public Misconceptions.
Short-term hardship often obscures long-term reform direction.
Subsidy removal, FX floatation, and fiscal tightening generate inflationary shocks initially — but they also remove structural distortions.
Trade surplus expansion signals strengthening export earnings — a precursor to currency stabilisation once supply chains rebalance.
Reform Courage vs Political Caution.
Economic history distinguishes cautious administrations that defer structural correction from reformist governments that absorb short-term backlash to secure long-term stability.
Exchange-rate liberalisation and subsidy withdrawal fall squarely within high-risk, high-impact reform categories.
Current policy direction reflects structural correction rather than cosmetic adjustment.
Conclusion.
Nigeria’s trade balance evolution from deficit cycles to surplus strengthening provides crucial context for evaluating ongoing reforms.
While inflation and cost pressures remain immediate citizen concerns, external trade recovery signals improving dollar liquidity fundamentals.
Trade surplus expansion is not abstract economics — it is foundational to currency stability, investor confidence, and industrial recovery.
The stabilisation journey is transitional, but external balance indicators suggest reforms are structurally aligned toward long-term resilience.
The National Patriots Movement notes that Nigeria’s improving trade surplus trajectory reflects structural reform impact. Expanded export earnings, moderated imports, and FX liberalisation are strengthening dollar liquidity. Microcredit platforms, social welfare intervention projects, and quick-win safety-net programmes remain vital to cushioning citizens while reforms mature into broad-based economic recovery.
Dr. G. Fraser. MFR
The National Patriots.
NIGERIA TRADE BALANCE BETWEEN 2015 TO 2025…
2015. Trade deficits. -$6,447billion
2016 Trade Deficits. $-536million
2017. Trade Surplus -$13,148billion
2018. Trade Surplus $20,467billion
2019. Trade Surplus. $2,868billion
2020. Trade Deficits. $16,402billion
2021. Trade surplus. $4,561billion..
2022. Trade Surplus. $5,998billion
2023. Trade Surplus. $8,453billion
2024. Trade Surplus. $13,573billion
2025. Trade Surplus. $20billion+
Trade balance determines the availability or scarcity of dollars in a country…. And have spiral effect on many other economic activities…
Looking at the data …. You would understand why Dollar was always scarce under Buhari…. Too many deficits and very little surplus….
Economy wasn’t Buhari strongest point…. He kept delaying the inevitable until the gap between official and black market grew to almost 100%….
He resorted to borrowing to fill the gap but did a collateral damage to the economy…..
If you supported Buhari but think Tinubu is awful… Tinubu is packing your sh*t…. For 8yrs we all supported Buhari…. With this awful data because we see leadership as marathon relay and not sprint….
If Tinubu kept repeating Buhari Trade Deficits… Nigerians would insult all of us in APC or who supported APC and not just Buhari and Tinubu…
Today Tinubu is doing what Buhari refused to do because he was scared of his popularity especially in the North to the detriment of the economic health of Nigeria…
Today…. Tinubu simply allow the Naira to float without the dollar as godfather….. This encourage export and discourage imports…
Today our trade balance is rising like Ijebu garri every year….
