Princess Gloria Adebajo-Fraser, MFR, Governance & Perception Management Consultant, Strategist & Researcher, has described the recent by-elections conducted across Kano, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and Rivers State as “a measurable validation” of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reform trajectory.
In a detailed post-election assessment, she argued that both turnout patterns and electoral outcomes indicate growing public confidence in governance reforms and the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral system under the amended Electoral Act.
According to figures released by the Independent National Electoral Commission, voter participation in the affected constituencies showed improvement compared with previous off-cycle contests in similar categories.
While by-elections traditionally attract lower turnout than general elections, the relative increase in participation, she noted, suggests renewed civic engagement and rising trust in the system.
“When citizens who previously stayed home now come out to vote, it reflects confidence that their votes will count,” Princess Adebajo-Fraser stated.
“It also reflects a growing understanding of the direction of governance and the long-term implications of reform.”
She commended INEC for implementing reforms embedded in the Electoral Act, including strengthened polling unit documentation, transparent collation procedures and structured dispute-resolution mechanisms.
According to her, the by-elections functioned as effective stress tests ahead of 2027 and demonstrated improvements in process integrity.
Drawing from research methodology, she compared the electoral outcomes to quantitative and qualitative sampling principles.
“In social science,” she explained, “a representative sampling across geopolitical zones can provide credible indicators of national sentiment.
When electoral outcomes in the South-South, North-West, North-Central and the FCT show converging trends, analysts must pay attention.”
In the recent contests, candidates of the APC secured victories in key constituencies.
Princess Adebajo-Fraser argued that this pattern suggests that President Tinubu’s fiscal reforms, electoral reforms and broader governance recalibration are gradually gaining acceptance despite the short-term pressures associated with structural change.
She pointed to major policy shifts including subsidy removal, exchange rate harmonisation, increased revenue allocation to sub-national governments, expansion of social safety nets and enhanced foreign policy engagement aimed at repositioning Nigeria’s global image.
“The President took difficult but necessary decisions early,” she said. “Governors now have more fiscal space to implement palliatives and support vulnerable citizens.
Nigerians understand that reform is often painful before it yields measurable benefits.”
She also noted what she described as a reduction in the historical disconnect between leadership and followership.
According to her, the by-election results suggest that citizens increasingly perceive strategic intent in policy direction, even where economic hardship remains a concern.
Princess Adebajo-Fraser congratulated the APC for what she described as law-abiding and mature conduct during the elections.
She further commended Nyesom Wike for maintaining a peaceful environment in the FCT, stressing that neutrality and order are essential pillars of democratic credibility.
On the electoral architecture itself, she maintained that the current framework significantly limits avenues for systemic fraud. “The structure now emphasises transparency at polling units, documentation and legal recourse.
Where allegations arise, they must be tested against procedure and numbers. Emotion cannot override data.”
However, she cautioned that the APC must not become complacent.
“Victory is not a license for complacency,” she warned. “The party must work even harder.
The opposition and detractors understand that they currently lack grassroots depth in several regions and may resort to distractions, narrative manipulation or agitation to regain relevance.
The ruling party must remain focused, disciplined and performance-driven.”
She added that sustained engagement with citizens, delivery of reform dividends and transparent communication would be critical in consolidating public trust ahead of 2027.
Beyond domestic implications, she praised President Tinubu’s foreign policy engagements and image repositioning efforts, arguing that Nigeria’s renewed diplomatic visibility is gradually strengthening investor confidence and international perception.
“Nigerians have spoken through participation and outcome,” Princess Adebajo-Fraser concluded.
“These by-elections are early indicators of alignment between reform objectives and public expectation. The true dividends of restructuring will unfold progressively. When they do, the historical significance of this period will become even clearer.”
As the political landscape gradually tilts toward 2027, the by-elections in Kano, Rivers and the FCT may stand not merely as routine contests, but as data points in the evolving narrative of Nigeria’s reform era.
Dr. Imran Khazaly
Headlinenews.news Special report.
