Princess Gloria Adebajo-Fraser, MFR, Governance & Perception Management Consultant, Strategist & Researcher, Ceo of Fraser Consulting Consortium has described the recent by-elections conducted across Kano State, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and Rivers State as a measurable validation of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reform agenda and a strong indicator of renewed public confidence in Nigeria’s democratic process.
In a comprehensive post-election assessment, she argued that both voter participation trends and electoral outcomes demonstrate increasing alignment between citizens and the reform-oriented direction of the current administration.
According to figures released by the Independent National Electoral Commission, turnout levels in the affected constituencies reflected improvement compared to previous off-cycle elections in similar categories.
While by-elections traditionally record lower participation than general elections, the relative increase observed in these contests suggests that voters were motivated to perform their civic duty.
“When citizens who previously disengaged from off-cycle contests make a deliberate effort to vote, it signals trust,”
Princess Adebajo-Fraser stated. “It signals belief that the system works and that their participation carries meaning.”
She commended INEC for what she described as effective implementation of provisions under the amended Electoral Act, noting improvements in polling unit documentation, structured collation procedures and clearer dispute resolution mechanisms.
“These by-elections served as institutional stress tests,” she observed. “The system was examined under competitive conditions and held.”
Electoral Reform and Structural Integrity.
Princess Adebajo-Fraser argued that Nigeria’s electoral architecture has matured considerably. With polling unit-level result documentation, stronger monitoring frameworks and legal pathways for petition and tribunal review, opportunities for systemic manipulation have narrowed significantly.
Where opposition voices cited isolated result sheet corrections, she noted that electoral jurisprudence requires proof of substantial and outcome-determinative irregularities before any poll can be invalidated.
“Elections are not invalidated by arithmetic corrections alone,” she said. “They are assessed by scale, material impact and adherence to procedure.”
She stressed that the legal and institutional safeguards now embedded in the electoral process have enhanced transparency and accountability, contributing to public confidence.
Reform Agenda and Political Acceptance.
Princess Adebajo-Fraser connected the electoral outcomes to broader policy shifts under President Tinubu’s administration.
She cited major fiscal and structural reforms including:
Removal of fuel subsidy and fiscal realignment.
Exchange rate harmonisation.
Increased federal allocations to states.
Expansion of social safety nets and palliative interventions.
Revenue reforms aimed at improving public finance sustainability.
Strengthened foreign policy engagement to reposition Nigeria globally
She argued that while these reforms initially generated hardship and resistance, there is growing public understanding that structural recalibration is necessary for long-term national stability.
“The President took politically difficult decisions early in his tenure,” she said. “Reform is rarely comfortable.
But Nigerians are increasingly distinguishing between temporary discomfort and long-term restructuring.”
According to her, enhanced revenue allocations to governors have enabled sub-national governments to implement palliatives and targeted relief measures. She described this as evidence of cooperative federalism in practice.
“Citizens may express frustration over inflation or cost pressures, but they also recognise intent and direction,” she added.
Sampling, Representation and Political Signal.
Drawing from social science research principles, Princess Adebajo-Fraser compared the by-elections to quantitative and qualitative sampling models.
“In research methodology, representative sampling across diverse geographic zones can provide reliable indicators of national trends,” she explained.
“When electoral contests in the South-South, North-West, North-Central and the FCT produce converging patterns, analysts must treat that as meaningful data.”
She argued that the APC’s victories in strategically dispersed regions suggest that public acceptance of the Tinubu administration is not confined to one geopolitical bloc.
“These were not isolated, culturally homogenous constituencies,” she noted. “They represent varied political histories and voter behaviour patterns.”
According to her assessment, the results reflect increasing synchronisation between leadership and followership — a relationship that she argued had experienced strain over the past two decades.
“There was a widening disconnect between citizens and institutions for many years,” she said. “These elections suggest that gap is narrowing.”
Governance Perception and Global Repositioning.
Princess Adebajo-Fraser also highlighted Nigeria’s evolving international posture under President Tinubu’s leadership.
She commended what she described as strategic foreign policy engagements and efforts to rebuild Nigeria’s global image.
According to her, renewed diplomatic outreach, investment dialogues and international visibility are gradually reshaping perceptions of Nigeria as a reform-driven economy.
“Image matters in global politics,” she stated. “Nigeria’s repositioning is not cosmetic — it is strategic.”
She argued that such repositioning reinforces domestic confidence when citizens see their country regaining credibility in global economic and diplomatic circles.
Commendations and Institutional Stability.
Princess Adebajo-Fraser congratulated the APC for what she described as law-abiding conduct and maturity during the electoral process.
She also commended Nyesom Wike for ensuring a peaceful environment in the FCT during the elections, noting that visible neutrality and orderly security deployment are essential components of credible democracy.
“Peaceful elections are not accidental,” she remarked. “They are the product of administrative preparation and political restraint.”
She congratulated the people of the FCT, Kano and Rivers for conducting themselves peacefully and performing their civic responsibilities responsibly.
Above all, she praised INEC for demonstrating that elections in Nigeria can be free, fair and transparent when institutions function as designed.
A Warning Against Complacency.
Despite her positive assessment, Princess Adebajo-Fraser issued a clear caution to the ruling party.
“The APC must not rest on its oars,” she warned. “Political momentum is not self-sustaining.”
According to her, opposition actors who recognise current grassroots limitations may intensify narrative campaigns, provoke distractions or amplify isolated incidents in an attempt to regain relevance.
“The ruling party must remain disciplined, policy-focused and people-centred,” she said. “Performance must speak louder than propaganda.”
She stressed that sustained citizen engagement, effective communication of reform milestones and delivery of measurable economic improvements will be essential ahead of 2027.
Looking Ahead to 2027.
Princess Adebajo-Fraser concluded that the by-elections should be interpreted as early indicators rather than definitive outcomes.
“These contests are not the final chapter,” she said. “They are data points.”
However, she maintained that the pattern emerging from Kano, Rivers and the FCT suggests that Nigerians are increasingly aligning with reform over rhetoric.
“Nigerians understand that restructuring a nation of over 200 million people requires courage, patience and sacrifice,” she stated. “The votes cast in these elections suggest that many citizens recognise the intent behind the reforms.”
She expressed confidence that as the tangible benefits of fiscal restructuring, currency stabilisation, investment inflows and improved security coordination begin to crystallise more visibly, broader appreciation will follow.
“In time,” she said, “history will judge this reform era with clarity.”
As Nigeria moves steadily toward 2027, Princess Adebajo-Fraser described the by-elections as more than routine democratic exercises.
“They represent measurable signals,” she concluded. “Signals that Nigerians are engaging, evaluating and choosing direction — not noise”.
Headlinenews.news Special report.
