Nigerian motorists might get a temporary breather from rising fuel prices as Brent crude, the benchmark for Nigeria’s oil, fell sharply, dropping more than 15 percent to below $95 per barrel on Wednesday.
The fall came after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, a move that immediately impacted global energy markets. Brent crude futures were down $18.27, or 15.72 percent, to $92.26 per barrel by mid-afternoon Nigerian time, while West Texas Intermediate fell $20.48, or 18.13 percent, to $92.47. Analysts said investors were reacting to the easing tensions by selling oil.
The ceasefire requires Iran to halt attacks and allow safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway responsible for around 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply. A senior Iranian official said the strait could reopen in a limited way ahead of upcoming talks between US and Iranian officials in Pakistan. Analysts expect the 10–13 million barrels per day of crude stranded behind the strait to gradually return to the market.
Gas markets could also see some relief. LNG shipments trapped in the Gulf may begin moving again, though full production from damaged sites in Qatar and the UAE will take longer to restart.
For Nigeria, the timing offers some respite for consumers who have faced a rollercoaster fuel market. Between January and March, petrol prices from the Dangote Refinery rose and fell nine times, pushing ex-depot rates from N699 to N1,200 per litre. At the pump, Abuja consumers were paying between ₦1,290 and ₦1,350 per litre at the peak.
Since the 2023 subsidy removal, Nigeria’s fuel prices respond quickly to global oil movements. The Dangote Refinery, producing 650,000 barrels per day, now sets the pace for domestic petrol prices, with retail stations adjusting rapidly. NNPC outlets in Abuja have already cut petrol prices from N1,361 to N1,295 per litre, and Lagos stations have followed suit.
Despite the welcome relief, analysts warn that the ceasefire is temporary, and Nigeria’s crude supply chain remains fragile. The Dangote Refinery still faces a shortfall of nearly 80 million barrels of crude between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, meaning price reductions at the pump depend on securing adequate supplies.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves, now at $50.45 billion, offer some macroeconomic cushion, but they provide limited protection to the average motorist if global oil prices surge again.
