The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has significantly increased the issuance of fuel import licences, approving about 600,000 metric tonnes of petrol imports — roughly a quarter of the country’s domestic consumption.
The development marks a notable shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum policy, especially as it comes alongside recent leadership changes at the regulator, including the removal of its former Chief Executive, Saidu Mohammed, and the appointment of Rabiu Umar, a former executive at Dangote Industries Limited.
The move has sparked debate within the energy sector. While some stakeholders argue that continued imports are necessary to ensure fuel supply stability and market competition, others believe the decision could undermine local refining efforts, particularly the $20 billion Dangote Refinery project.
According to industry sources cited by S&P Global, the NMDPRA issued new import permits on May 6 to six Nigerian petroleum marketers, including Matrix, AA Rano, AYM Shafa, Nipco, Pinnacle, and Bono. The approved allocations reportedly range between 60,000 and 150,000 metric tonnes per company.
The imports are expected to be sourced from offshore trading hubs such as Lomé, where international suppliers offload products for redistribution across West Africa.
This latest approval comes after earlier restrictions, where import licences issued in March were allowed to expire, creating uncertainty around the regulator’s long-term policy direction.
The Dangote Refinery, Nigeria’s largest private refinery and currently the only functioning facility of its scale, reportedly operated at 94 per cent capacity in March, producing enough fuel to meet national demand. However, domestic supply distribution has remained inconsistent.
Despite this, Nigeria still imported about 60,000 barrels per day of petrol in April, more than double March levels but below historical averages, according to market data.
The refinery’s Chief Executive, David Bird, has previously raised concerns about market distortions caused by substandard imported fuel, insisting that the facility is capable of meeting domestic demand if a level playing field is maintained.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s broader financial markets have continued to show strong performance. Stocks, bonds, and the naira have all recorded gains in recent months, supported by investor confidence in ongoing economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu.
Since the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate unification, the economy has attracted renewed foreign interest. Nigeria’s stock market has surged significantly in dollar terms over the past year, while government bonds and the currency have also strengthened relative to several emerging markets.
Analysts say improved policy credibility, rising oil revenues, and global market reclassification efforts are contributing to renewed investor confidence.
However, concerns remain that global energy price fluctuations and import dependence could still pose risks to inflation, food prices, and overall economic stability in the months ahead.
