By Gloria Fraser. MFR
Politics has often been described as the management of public expectations, but history suggests that governments are ultimately judged by something far more fundamental: their ability to protect lives.
Across democracies, citizens may disagree over taxes, ideology, subsidies, healthcare or economic reforms, yet they almost universally expect the state to provide security. When governments succeed in rescuing innocent citizens from terrorists or criminal gangs, public confidence often rises because the state has demonstrated competence in fulfilling its most basic constitutional obligation.
That reality has once again come into focus following the successful rescue of the 46 students and teachers abducted from schools in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State after nearly 60 days in captivity.
The operation, reportedly carried out through coordinated intelligence gathering and Special Forces deployment, culminated in the safe recovery of the victims, the arrest of eight suspected terrorists and the neutralisation of several others. Across Ogbomoso and neighbouring communities, celebrations erupted as anxious families reunited with their loved ones.
Across social media, thousands of Nigerians commended the gallantry of the Armed Forces and other security agencies, while many also acknowledged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s sustained commitment to securing the victims’ release.
Beyond the emotional relief, however, the operation has triggered another important national conversation.
Could this rescue significantly strengthen President Tinubu’s political standing ahead of the 2027 presidential election?
The answer requires careful analysis rather than political sentiment.
Political science offers useful insights into how citizens respond to major security events.
One of the best-known concepts is the “rally-around-the-leader” effect.
First identified by American political scientist John Mueller in the 1970s, the theory explains how successful leadership during national emergencies often produces temporary increases in public approval, particularly when governments demonstrate decisiveness, competence and effective crisis management.
This phenomenon has been observed in different forms across several democracies.
Following successful counter-terrorism operations, American presidents have frequently recorded measurable improvements in public approval.
Israel has repeatedly witnessed national unity after successful hostage rescue missions. Colombia’s prolonged fight against kidnapping syndicates significantly strengthened confidence in successive governments as intelligence-led operations rescued hostages and dismantled insurgent networks. Similar patterns have been documented in the United Kingdom following successful interventions against terrorist threats.
Although every nation has its unique political culture, one principle remains remarkably consistent: citizens reward governments that successfully protect them.
Nigeria is no exception.
For over a decade, insecurity has remained one of the country’s defining governance challenges.
Terrorism in the North-East, banditry across the North-West, kidnapping in the North-Central, separatist violence in parts of the South-East and organised criminality in several southern states have combined to make security one of the most important issues influencing public opinion.
Indeed, security has shaped political debates in virtually every presidential election since 2015.
The Oriire school abduction therefore struck a particularly sensitive national nerve.
Schools occupy a unique place in every society. They symbolise hope, opportunity and the future.
An attack on pupils and teachers is therefore perceived not merely as a criminal act but as an assault on the nation’s future itself.
This explains why school abductions often generate stronger public reactions than many other security incidents.
Parents across Nigeria instinctively identified with the suffering of the affected families.
The prolonged captivity heightened public anxiety, while fears grew that another school kidnapping could end in tragedy.
Against that backdrop, the successful rescue carries significance far beyond the immediate operation.
It demonstrated that intelligence-driven security operations, when adequately coordinated and properly resourced, remain capable of producing decisive results against organised criminal networks.
The reported arrest of eight suspected terrorists may prove as important as the rescue itself.
Security experts generally agree that every captured terrorist represents a valuable intelligence asset.
Modern counter-terrorism is no longer won solely by superior firepower. It depends heavily on actionable intelligence capable of exposing financiers, logistics coordinators, safe houses, weapons suppliers, communication channels and wider criminal networks.
Every arrest therefore creates opportunities to prevent future attacks.
This is one reason many counter-insurgency specialists argue that dismantling operational networks is strategically more valuable than merely responding to isolated incidents.
For the Tinubu administration, this distinction matters enormously.
Since assuming office in May 2023, President Tinubu has simultaneously confronted two difficult national realities.
The first has been economic.
The removal of fuel subsidies, foreign exchange reforms and broader macroeconomic adjustments have imposed considerable short-term hardship on many households despite the administration’s argument that the reforms are essential for long-term national stability.
The second challenge has been security.
While several military operations have recorded successes against terrorist and criminal groups, many Nigerians continue to measure government performance by the frequency of kidnappings, attacks on communities and the safety of ordinary citizens.
That is precisely why the Oyo rescue has attracted such widespread national attention.
It offers the administration a visible security success that ordinary Nigerians can immediately understand—not through statistics or policy documents, but through the safe return of innocent children and teachers to their families.
If security experts are correct that every successful counter-terrorism operation should weaken the operational capacity of criminal networks, the rescue of the Oriire pupils and teachers may prove to be more than an isolated tactical success. The reported arrest of eight suspected terrorists offers security agencies an opportunity to gather intelligence capable of exposing wider kidnapping syndicates, weapons suppliers, financiers, informants and logistics routes. In modern counter-insurgency operations, intelligence derived from arrested suspects has often proved as valuable as the operation itself.
This is where the political significance of the operation begins to intersect with governance.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has consistently maintained that restoring security remains one of the pillars of his administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda. Since assuming office, the Federal Government has increased military recruitment, expanded intelligence coordination among security agencies, invested in operational equipment and repeatedly directed security chiefs to intensify efforts against terrorism, banditry and kidnapping.
While critics have argued that insecurity remains a major national challenge, supporters of the administration point to several military offensives against terrorist groups, the elimination of notorious criminal leaders and the gradual restoration of farming activities in some previously troubled communities.
The successful rescue in Oyo now provides one of the administration’s most visible security achievements, particularly because it involved innocent schoolchildren and teachers whose prolonged captivity had attracted nationwide sympathy.
Political communication experts often argue that visible success matters more than official statistics.
Economic reforms frequently require months or years before ordinary citizens experience their benefits. Security victories, however, are immediately visible. Parents do not need economic data to appreciate the return of abducted children. Communities do not require technical briefings before recognising that kidnapped teachers have regained their freedom. Such moments resonate emotionally because they touch families directly.
This explains why scenes of jubilation across Ogbomoso and surrounding communities carried political significance beyond local celebrations. Images of rescued victims, armoured military vehicles and fully equipped Special Forces personnel projected a picture of state capacity and operational effectiveness. In politics, perception is often shaped by visible outcomes, and successful security operations naturally reinforce confidence in government institutions.
Nevertheless, history also offers an important caution.
Successful rescue operations rarely determine elections on their own.
Research into electoral behaviour across democracies consistently shows that voters assess governments using multiple indicators simultaneously. Security is undoubtedly one of them, but so too are inflation, employment, healthcare, education, electricity, infrastructure and household purchasing power.
Nigeria is unlikely to be different.
As the country gradually approaches the 2027 general election, many Nigerians will judge the Tinubu administration not only on whether it rescued the Oriire victims, but also on whether insecurity continues to decline, whether economic reforms deliver tangible improvements in living standards and whether ordinary citizens experience greater prosperity.
In other words, one successful rescue can improve confidence, but sustained performance determines electoral outcomes.
Political scientists generally distinguish between event-driven popularity and performance-based popularity. The first follows major national events such as military victories, disaster responses or hostage rescues. The second develops gradually as citizens observe consistent improvements over several years.
Performance-based popularity is considerably more durable.
For President Tinubu, therefore, the Oyo rescue should be viewed as an opportunity rather than a destination.
If similar intelligence-led operations continue across different parts of Nigeria, if kidnappings reduce significantly, if schools become demonstrably safer and if terrorist networks continue to be dismantled, then the cumulative political impact could become substantial before Nigerians return to the polls in 2027.
Conversely, if insecurity persists at current levels or worsens elsewhere, the goodwill generated by the Oriire rescue may gradually fade as newer security challenges dominate public attention.
Another important factor is regional perception.
The South-West has historically played a decisive role in Nigeria’s presidential elections. A successful security operation within the region therefore carries symbolic importance beyond Oyo State itself. Communities across the South-West have increasingly expressed concerns over kidnappings, attacks on highways and criminal activities within forests. Any sustained improvement in regional security is therefore likely to influence public confidence more broadly.
Equally significant is the message sent to criminal groups.
Successful rescue operations demonstrate that hostage-taking does not guarantee impunity. Every terrorist arrested, every criminal network dismantled and every victim rescued strengthens deterrence while reinforcing confidence among law-abiding citizens.
For security agencies, the operation also reinforces the importance of intelligence-led policing and military operations rather than purely reactive responses. Around the world, countries that have significantly reduced kidnapping and terrorism have generally relied on superior intelligence, technological surveillance, rapid deployment capabilities and effective inter-agency coordination. Nigeria’s recent experience appears to support the same lesson.
Ultimately, elections are won not by isolated headlines but by sustained public confidence.
The successful rescue of the 46 Oriire pupils and teachers undoubtedly represents a significant operational achievement for Nigeria’s security agencies and a welcome moment of relief for their families. It also provides President Bola Ahmed Tinubu with a measurable governance success in one of the policy areas that matters most to Nigerians.
Whether that success translates into increased political support will depend on what follows.
If the Oyo operation marks the beginning of a broader reduction in terrorism, kidnapping and violent crime, historians may eventually regard it as one of the defining security moments of the Tinubu administration. If it becomes part of a consistent pattern of intelligence-driven successes across the country, it could strengthen public confidence in the government’s ability to protect lives and secure communities.
History rarely rewards governments for isolated victories.
It rewards consistency, results and the ability to convince citizens that positive change is not accidental but sustainable.
For millions of Nigerians, the rescue of the Oriire victims has restored hope that determined leadership, capable security institutions and effective intelligence can overcome even the most difficult security challenges. The true political significance of that operation will not be measured by the celebrations that followed, but by whether it marks the beginning of a safer Nigeria—one in which parents can send their children to school without fear, communities can sleep in peace, and citizens can once again place their confidence in the ability of the state to protect them.
If that objective is achieved, the Oyo rescue will be remembered not merely as a successful military operation, but as a defining moment in the relationship between governance, public confidence and Nigeria’s democratic future.
The National Patriots commends President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Armed Forces and all security agencies for the successful rescue of the Oriire pupils and teachers. In our view, this operation demonstrates President Tinubu’s growing command of governance and reinforces our confidence that he possesses the leadership capacity required to confront Nigeria’s complex challenges. We urge sustained intelligence-led operations to secure lasting peace nationwide ahead of 2027 and beyond.
Princess Gloria Fraser. MFR.
President, The National Patriots.
Special Adviser to Former President Goodluck Jonathan.
