A Brewing Political Undercurrent: Navigating the Strategic Tensions Within the APC
By Dr. Imran Khazaly, PhD.
It appears a quiet but consequential political rift is developing within the upper echelons of the current administration. What was once silent discontent now resembles the contours of a tactical cold war, as Vice President Kashim Shettima finds himself increasingly alienated by certain influential power blocs within the Presidency.
Those who underestimate the strategic and political weight of this emerging discord may not fully grasp its long-term implications. The Vice President, by many accounts, has exercised restraint, loyalty, and political maturity over the past two years. However, recent events suggest that patience is wearing thin, and in its place, a carefully calculated repositioning may be underway.
Signals of Fracture
While some commentators have focused on recent remarks by the Vice President as merely rhetorical or intellectual, others interpret them as early indications of a strategic realignment—one that could shift the balance of power within the All Progressives Congress (APC) if not tactfully managed.
The signs are not ambiguous: body language, policy posture, and veiled criticisms suggest a Vice President who feels increasingly marginalised. His camp, it is believed, may be initiating quiet consultations and political regrouping—not in defiance of party ideals, but in response to what they perceive as entrenched cabalism and internal exclusion.
This perceived sidelining of the Vice President and other prominent northern figures, such as former Governor Nasir El-Rufai and erstwhile APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, has fueled sentiments of betrayal and discontent. These developments raise significant concerns about the fragility of unity within the APC, especially as Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections.
Danger of Political Fallout
History has shown that unresolved internal conflicts—particularly those driven by exclusion, regional imbalance, or perceived injustice—often spiral into broader political crises. The current trajectory, if not addressed with statesmanship and sensitivity, may lead to open confrontations between senior government officials, Governors, and legislators, particularly from the North-East and North-West zones.
The risk is not simply party disintegration—it is electoral jeopardy. If key northern stakeholders, who were instrumental in securing victory in 2023, begin to withdraw support or quietly oppose the President’s second-term ambitions, it could significantly weaken the APC’s national cohesion and electoral prospects.
Moreover, recent internal dynamics within Lagos, such as growing contestation over succession plans in the state and grievances among Yoruba political elites, suggest that discontent is not limited to the North. There appears to be a broader unease about the concentration of influence and decision-making within narrow inner circles.
Strategic Missteps and the Price of Betrayal
The cases of Ganduje and El-Rufai are particularly instructive. Both men made significant sacrifices for the party and the President’s electoral success. El-Rufai, especially, was instrumental during the most sensitive moments of the 2023 transition period. Yet, his perceived sidelining has created a powerful narrative of sacrifice met with betrayal.
It is not lost on northern political actors that trusted allies have been replaced or subordinated to less politically grounded figures. This has created a sense of alienation among key blocs, including within the National Assembly and state structures. When voices like Shettima’s begin to suggest dissatisfaction—subtly or overtly—it is a signal that the center of power may not be holding as tightly as assumed.
The Vice President’s Recent Statements: A Strategic Bombshell?
By acknowledging the declining independence of the judiciary, the weakening of legislative integrity, and intolerance toward dissent, Vice President Shettima may have opened what could become a new phase of national introspection. To many observers, his recent comments signal a philosophical departure from the administration’s current tone and approach.
Such public positioning is rare from a sitting Vice President in Nigeria’s political history. It requires careful interpretation. It could either be a call for internal reform and reflection, or a signal that he is willing to chart a distinct political course if necessary.
Conclusion: A Time for Reflection, Not Retaliation
The President and his inner circle must recognise the gravity of this moment. Political exclusion breeds counter-mobilisation. Loyalty, once undermined, does not regenerate easily. Rather than react defensively, this is a moment to engage—strategically, maturely, and inclusively.
The APC must move from personality politics to institutional thinking. It must prevent the repeat of internal implosions that plagued previous ruling parties. Dialogue, inclusion, and mutual respect between President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima must be restored and maintained.
As 2027 approaches, political miscalculations today could carry devastating consequences tomorrow. The storm may not have fully formed, but the winds are shifting.
Dr. Imran Mohammed, PhD
Political Analyst, Public Affairs Strategist, and Lecturer on Federal Power Dynamics and Political Leadership.
