The Pain Before Prosperity: Why Unpopular Policies May Be Nigeria’s Path to Real Reform
By Princess G. Fraser. MFR The National Patriots.
April 23, 2025
Abuja, Nigeria – Amid rising tension and mixed public reactions to ongoing reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, a new wave of public commentary is emerging—one that argues that unpopular policies, not populist rhetoric, are what Nigeria truly needs to break the cycle of underdevelopment, dependency, and policy somersaults.
A recent comment circulating widely across social platforms summarized this sentiment poignantly:
“A country is not moved forward by popular policies, but by unpopular ones. The real work of governance lies in tackling root causes, not treating symptoms.”
As discomfort grows over the removal of fuel subsidies, forex deregulation, and plans for civil service rationalization, the reality remains that no country has transformed without enduring short-term pain for long-term gain.
The Case for Unpopular but Necessary Reforms
Globally, history has shown that genuine economic recovery and national transformation often begin with decisions that were at first greeted with protests, political resistance, and public skepticism:
India in 1991, led by then-Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, removed trade barriers and subsidies to liberalize the economy. It triggered inflation and discontent but laid the foundation for India’s rise as a global tech hub.
Rwanda under Paul Kagame banned foreign aid dependency, invested heavily in infrastructure and digital governance, and enforced tax compliance. The initial discomfort was met with skepticism, but the country now boasts one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies.
Indonesia ended its decades-long subsidy regime in 2015 to redirect spending to healthcare, infrastructure, and education—sparking protests but lifting millions out of poverty over the next decade.
Nigeria, with a population of over 220 million, remains stuck in a vicious cycle: cheap fuel, subsidized forex, massive informal employment, and a bloated bureaucracy, all propped up by decades of short-term thinking.
“You cannot fix an economy by treating its symptoms. Nigeria must embrace the discomfort of genuine reforms,” says Dr. Amiida Fraser, MFR, an international governance and reform expert.
Why Reforms Hurt More in Nigeria
Unlike countries with relatively high literacy rates and unified political cultures, Nigeria’s case is more complex:
Literacy rate hovers around 62% nationally, but falls below 40% in parts of the North, making public understanding of economic reforms a major challenge.
Over 70% of the workforce operates in the informal sector, meaning citizens feel economic shocks faster and deeper when reforms touch energy, transport, and trade.
Despite having the cheapest plate of food in the world, according to the World Bank’s 2022 Food Affordability Index, Nigeria struggles with food insecurity due to poor logistics, insecurity, and post-harvest waste.
The nation possesses over 70 million hectares of arable land, but less than 45% is cultivated effectively.
“We are a blessed nation with abundant land, human capital, and natural resources. But until we deal with structural problems—fiscal recklessness, energy inefficiency, and elite capture—we will keep walking in circles,” said Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO and Nigeria’s former Finance Minister.
President Tinubu’s Gamble: Structural vs Superficial Fixes
The Tinubu administration has taken bold steps where past governments hesitated:
Fuel subsidy removal, freeing over ₦4 trillion in fiscal space annually.
Forex market liberalization, to combat round-tripping and artificial exchange rate regimes.
Public sector audit and reform, aimed at reducing leakages and pension liabilities.
Food security emergency programs, targeted at stimulating domestic production.
However, these reforms have come with immediate hardships: inflation soared to 29.9% in February 2025, transport costs doubled in several states, and small businesses are feeling the pinch.
Yet, economic analysts argue that Nigeria has long delayed these reforms, and the longer the wait, the more painful the transition would be.
Beyond Policy: The Need for Mass Literacy and Public Communication
A recurring weakness in Nigeria’s reform journey is communication failure. Citizens often react not only to policies, but to how they’re explained—or not explained.
Mass education, transparency in spending, and consistent government engagement are needed to bridge the gap between elite policymaking and grassroots understanding.
“Our challenge is not policy formulation. It is the literacy and trust gap between the government and the governed,” Dr. Fraser added.
Conclusion: Reform Is Not a Popularity Contest
While critics continue to describe Tinubu’s reforms as “harsh,” “elitist,” or “detached,” history suggests that popular policies are not always the right ones, especially for a nation with decades of systemic decay.
True reform often begins with rejection. It only becomes respectable when results replace rhetoric.
Nigeria may be enduring growing pains now—but if it stays the course, learns from its past, and listens to credible experts rather than armchair critics, it may well be on the brink of a national rebirth.
“Let us stop seeking applause for easy answers. Let us start seeking impact through difficult decisions,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala during a 2023 address on economic reform in developing countries.
Princess G. Adebajo-Fraser MFR
The National Patriots.
“Unpopular but Unstoppable: Why Nigeria’s Painful Reforms May Be the Only Path Forward” – Former Nigerian President.
“Developing a country isn’t about making noise; it’s about making decisions – tough, unpopular, but necessary ones.” – NGOZI Okonjo-Iweala
“Beyond Populism: The Hidden Power of Unpopular Policies in Nigeria’s Economic Rebirth” – Former CBN Governor and Economist.
“Fixing Nigeria from the Roots: Why Superficial Solutions No Longer Work” – Legal Luminary.
“Reform or Ruin: The Case for Tough Policies in a Fragile Economy” – Retired Ambassador.
“From Subsidies to Sovereignty: The High Cost of Doing What’s Right in Nigeria” – Elder Statesman.
“No Applause Needed: Why Nigeria Needs Reform, Not Approval” – International Organisation.
“Tough Pills, True Cure: Why Only Unpopular Policies Can Save Nigeria” – Member UK Parliament.
“Broken Systems, Brave Fixes: The Leadership Nigeria Needs Today” – Former Governor.
“When Doing the Right Thing Hurts: Nigeria’s Journey to True Reform” – House of Assembly Member.
“Tinubu’s Gamble: Between Public Pain and Long-Term Prosperity” – Prof. Olayemi.
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