A new report by S&P Global has revealed that the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery is now meeting up to 60% of Nigeria’s gasoline (petrol) demand, marking a major shift in the country’s fuel supply dynamics.
The report underscores the refinery’s growing impact on reducing Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports and stabilizing the local energy market. However, this claim contradicts recent disclosures by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, which stated that the country’s three operational refineries collectively supply less than 50% of national petrol consumption.
Since its commencement in January 2024, the 650,000 barrels-per-day (b/d) refinery has been closely monitored, with analysts predicting it could significantly reduce Nigeria’s petrol import deficit. Surpassing initial expectations, Dangote’s refinery began operating its key gasoline unit—the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC)—in September 2024 and is projected to reach full capacity by mid-March 2025.
Speaking to Platts in January, a Dangote Group executive reported that the refinery was producing over 30 million liters of gasoline daily, achieving an 85% utilization rate. This translates to approximately 200,000 b/d, covering the majority of Nigeria’s estimated 350,000 b/d petrol demand.
Despite skepticism from some market sources regarding actual production volumes, import data suggests that Dangote’s refinery is significantly displacing foreign fuel supplies. In January 2025, Nigeria imported just 62,000 b/d of gasoline—down from an average of 200,000 b/d in 2024, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.
While traders remain cautious about the refinery’s true capacity, Dangote’s supply dominance is becoming evident. Some analysts argue that residual imports from offshore Lome and Europe could still serve as a backup, particularly if the refinery experiences operational disruptions.
Meanwhile, state-owned refineries appear to be making minimal contributions to local petrol supply. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) recently stated that the Warri refinery was undergoing maintenance, while sources indicated that Port Harcourt was also offline, despite NNPC’s claims of continued operation.
Analysts warn that the refinery’s scale and complexity present potential risks, with supply chain logistics and operational stability remaining key concerns. However, the consensus is that Dangote’s refinery is transforming Nigeria’s fuel landscape, significantly cutting dependence on imports and reshaping the country’s energy market.
