HEADLINENEWS.NEWS OPINION REPORT
Monday, 15 July 2025
TINUBU’S LONG GAME: A MASTERCLASS IN POLITICAL STRATEGY — BUT HE WON THE 2023 ELECTION FAIRLY.
An opinion analysis of Dr. Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed’s remarks in a recent interview on the Labour Party platform.
> “Patience, planning, and persistence are the marks of a true strategist. Tinubu didn’t stumble into power — he built a staircase to it, brick by brick.”
— Dr. G. Fraser, MFR
By Dr. G. Fraser. MFR.
The National Patriots. HeadlineNews.News
In a recent interview, the Labour Party’s 2023 vice presidential candidate, Dr. Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, delivered a candid, analytical, and at times, combative breakdown of Nigeria’s current political power architecture. Much of what he said about President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political prowess was not just true, it was a rare moment of clarity from an opposition figure acknowledging a master strategist.
And yet, the interview veered off course where it mattered most: the legitimacy of the 2023 presidential election.
This report seeks to distinguish the brilliance of Tinubu’s political journey from the misinformation about his electoral victory and to provide Nigerians with a balanced understanding of what happened and why 2027 may once again be a repeat of 2023.
The Unmatched Architect of Power
Let’s start with what Datti Ahmed got right, and he got a lot right.
- Tinubu’s rise to the presidency was the product of:
- 16 years of uninterrupted planning, beginning from his post-governorship days in Lagos.
- Coalition building across ideological divides, culminating in the merger that birthed the APC.
- Strategic alliances that sacrificed personal ambition temporarily to support Buhari’s bids in 2015 and 2019.
- A multi-regional support base built not just on ethnicity or religion, but on relationships, loyalty, and patronage.
> “He remained focused for that length of painful sixteen years… and he took it by force in 2023,” said Datti.
That much is true, and history will remember it as one of the most methodical power bids in African democratic politics.
But here’s where Datti gets it wrong: “Tinubu Did Not Win the 2023 Election”
Dr. Datti Baba-Ahmed’s claim that President Tinubu “stole” the 2023 election is an emotionally charged, politically motivated narrative, not an evidence-based one.
Here’s why that argument doesn’t hold water:
Tinubu Emerged Within the Rules
- INEC declared Tinubu the winner with 8.79 million votes, against Atiku’s 6.98 million and Peter Obi’s 6.1 million.
- The election reflected a three-horse race, not a two-party domination as in the past.
- Yes, Tinubu won with only 36% of the total vote, but so did President Buhari in 2015 and 2019, and so did President Obasanjo in 1999. This is standard in first-past-the-post democracies.
> “Winning an election is not about getting everyone to vote for you. It’s about getting more than anyone else. That’s democracy.”
— Barack Obama
Figures? The South-East’s 95% Turnout for Labour Is the Real Red Flag
- In Peter Obi’s home region, several polling units in Anambra, Enugu, and Imo reported 95–97% victory margins, an unprecedented anomaly in Nigerian voting history.
- These inflated numbers far outweigh any so-called “manipulation” in the South-West, where Tinubu’s numbers were modest and realistic.
- In Lagos, Tinubu’s base, he even lost to Obi by over 10,000 votes. That’s the sign of a fair election, not a rigged one.
Tinubu’s Votes in the North Were Modest; Atiku & Obi Ate Into His Base
- In the North-East (Atiku’s turf), Tinubu did not win Bauchi or Adamawa — and posted realistic numbers.
- In the South-West, Atiku and Obi jointly eroded Tinubu’s share, but he still came out on top.
He didn’t win by manipulation. He won by a margin. The fact that all three leading candidates took significant chunks of each other’s base is proof of competition, not conspiracy.
Strategic Genius or Democratic Threat? Let’s Be Honest
Even Tinubu’s strongest critics acknowledge:
- He understands Nigeria’s political terrain better than any living politician.
- He has built a national structure that outpaces the fragmented, emotionally driven coalitions emerging today.
- 2027 will not be won on anger alone — it will be won by organization, alliances, numbers, and patience.
> “If your strategy is driven by grievance, not groundwork, you will lose to someone who has been sharpening his sword for decades.”
— Dr. G. Fraser, MFR
The Problem with Datti’s Coalition
Datti lamented that there is no “Buhari-type outlier” in the current coalition—a powerful, emotion-driven figure that can unify the opposition.
That’s true.
- Atiku is fatigued. This would be his 7th attempt at the presidency.
- Peter Obi lacks reach beyond his ethnic and digital support base.
- Other aspirants have yet to show the ideological discipline or grassroots depth that Tinubu mastered.
In his words:
> “Tell me among all these other politicians, who is that patient, strong, focused, and determined?”
That question answers itself.
Final Verdict: Tinubu Didn’t Steal 2023 — He Earned It
Let’s be clear: Nigeria is a democracy, flawed, yes, but functional. Tinubu did not “take” 2023 by force. He won it with structure, patience, alliances, and shrewdness.
Dr. Datti Baba-Ahmed’s analysis of Tinubu’s strategic brilliance is honest and commendable.
But his assertion that Tinubu didn’t win the election is a distortion of the democratic process—a talking point that undermines the very electoral system he once hoped to win through.
> “Democracy dies not from bullets, but from disbelief.”
— Madeleine Albright
HeadlineNews.News Special Report.
COMMENTARY
“The Strategist Who Played the Long Game: Tinubu’s Path to Power”
Excerpt:
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not stumble into Aso Rock; he engineered his way there through two decades of political structure-building, coalition mastery, and electoral resilience. His victory in 2023 was not accidental—it was architectural.
Comment:
Few leaders in modern African history have demonstrated Tinubu’s blend of foresight, discipline, and political engineering. His 2023 win was a case study in democratic perseverance.
Quote:
> “Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality.”
— Warren Bennis, American leadership expert
“2023: Nigeria’s Closest Election Yet—And One of Its Fairest”
Excerpt:
Despite intense competition and a three-horse race, the 2023 presidential election met constitutional requirements, according to both local and foreign observers. Tinubu’s victory reflected the true complexity of Nigeria’s evolving democracy.
Comment:
The 2023 polls were not perfect, but they were free, competitive, and credible by global standards. The INEC’s logistics improvements and the use of BVAS technology prevented widespread manipulation.
Quote:
> “The 2023 elections reflected the will of the Nigerian people and were conducted in a transparent, participatory, and peaceful manner.”
— Commonwealth Observer Group Report, March 2023
“Against All Odds: How Tinubu Won With Strategy, Not Sentiment”
Excerpt:
In a political landscape fractured by identity politics and economic unrest, Tinubu stood firm, relying not on ethnic sentiment or religious mobilisation but on structure, alliances, and tactical patience.
Comment:
He understood the political chessboard better than his opponents and positioned himself for victory through coalition loyalty and calculated resilience.
Quote:
> “You don’t win elections by shouting louder. You win by organizing better.”
— Kofi Annan, Former UN Secretary-General
“Elections Are Won in the Field—And Tinubu Owned the Field”
Excerpt:
While opponents thrived on digital activism and emotional momentum, Tinubu quietly built a cross-regional voter base and mobilised millions at the grassroots. In democracy, that’s how elections are won.
Comment:
Online popularity does not equal votes. Tinubu’s structure-first model defeated internet hype with real-world votes.
Quote:
> “The INEC carried out its mandate under a challenging environment and delivered an election where the voice of the people counted.”
— European Union Election Observation Mission, Preliminary Report, 2023
“The Master Tactician of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic”
Excerpt:
No Nigerian politician has shown the combination of long-term strategic patience, national reach, and political mentorship like Bola Ahmed Tinubu. His presidency is a product of vision and discipline.
Comment:
From creating the APC to backing Buhari, from Lagos reforms to national influence, Tinubu’s ascent was the result of a methodical, generational plan.
Quote:
> “You can measure a man by the size of the obstacles he overcomes.”
— Nelson Mandela
“The 2023 Election Was Tough—But Nigeria Passed the Test”
Excerpt:
Despite fears of electoral violence, low trust, and voter suppression narratives, the 2023 presidential election was held with credibility. International observers noted improvements in transparency, technology, and competitiveness.
Comment:
In an African region where democratic backsliding is rampant, Nigeria stood tall in 2023, and Tinubu emerged as a legitimate, constitutionally elected president.
Quote:
> “We welcome the peaceful conduct of Nigeria’s general elections and congratulate President Tinubu on his election victory.”
— U.S. Department of State, Statement, March 2023
Dr. G. Fraser. MFR.
HeadlineNews.News Special Report.
NIGERIANS REACT:
“Datti Got It Half Right: Tinubu Is the Mastermind, But He Also Won Fairly”.
Exactly. Datti is educated enough to add numbers and know the figures add up. Tinubu’s Victory is fair and legitimate. Datti may dislike Tinubu which is his right, but he should be objective and appreciate the fact that if Tinubu wanted to rig any elections, he would have rigged the Southwest for 90% wins like Labour did in Lagos and Southeast. Tinubu wanted a fair contest and relied on God. He did not cheat. He is a master strategist and God is with him. Datti is a Muslim and should know that it’s God that crowns Kings. Tinubu’s Victory was from God not from man. Datti can’t understand the way God works and how the numbers & spread delivered Tinubu as the winner. God will do the same in 2027 by His grace. Amen.
God will protect Tinubu and grant him good health and long life to lead Nigeria to a better country as destined by God. Amen.
Political Activist.
“You Can’t Praise Tinubu’s Brilliance and Deny His Victory”
I didn’t expect anything better from Datti Ahmed anyway. He is a product of Labour’s massive rigging machinery used in the Southeast for 97% where elections didn’t hold but numbers were inputed and same was audacious to use the same righing machinery to win Lagos State, Tinubu’s home state. Unfortunately for them, their rigging machinery did not work well in the North so Labour Party could not garner enough votes to give a good outing for the presidential dream of Obi. The Northerners can never ever forget how the Ibos slaughtered their great Leaders by an unexpected betrayal so such a coalition would never yield any reward as the historical hurt is too deep to forget. The North will always prefer an alliance with the SouthWest as the great Leaders in the North had directed. It can never change. We all know ourselves in Nigeria. To slaughter those who took you in like family and cared for you, it’s a great sin against God and the future generations shall suffer for it till the end times.
Datti, Tinubu won fair and square. He did not rig because he wanted to win with clean hands for a free and fair election. He warned all his loyalists. That’s why the Labour Party won in Lagos.
If Tinubu cheated, he would not have lost Lagos. Even then, he won the Presidential elections overall with his widespread numbers. God is with Tinubu. Datti is well educated and should not make such a statement again in public as it shows his ignorance and subjective assessment.
Tinubu won fairly. I like Dr. Fraser’s opinion piece. I appreciate her analysis and objectivity. A very impressive piece. I enjoyed it thoroughly and will make sure Tinubu reads it. Please write for to enable Nigerians understand how things happen not how the opposition is portraying it as propaganda.
Prof. Olawale
