Nigeria’s opposition parties are facing an existential crisis as defections, internal conflicts, and weak leadership continue to erode their influence, paving the way for near-total dominance by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Since the 2023 general elections, the APC has steadily made inroads into opposition territories, either by direct infiltration or by luring top politicians across party lines. This trend has sparked concerns about the integrity of Nigeria’s democratic institutions and raised fears of a slide toward one-party rule.
A key indicator of this shift came when Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, along with the entire state structure of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), defected to the APC in April 2025. The move ended the PDP’s 26-year grip on the oil-rich state. His predecessor and former vice-presidential candidate Ifeanyi Okowa followed suit. Oborevwori cited President Bola Tinubu’s “love” for Delta State as his reason, declaring, “This is a movement, not a defection.”
Not long after, Akwa Ibom State Governor Umo Eno, also of the PDP, hinted at plans to abandon what he metaphorically called a “faulty aircraft,” signalling potential support for Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid. Behind the scenes, reports suggest more PDP governors are preparing to switch allegiance to the ruling party.
In the National Assembly, the defections have also gathered pace, further solidifying APC’s legislative dominance.
Weakening Opposition, Strengthening Executive Power
Analysts and civil society groups argue that a strong and active opposition is vital for any democracy. But in Nigeria, internal wrangling, lack of ideological clarity, and leadership tussles have rendered opposition parties ineffective. Activists warn that Nigeria is inching toward a de facto one-party state, where dissent is neutralized through bribery, blackmail, and coercion—allegations the presidency has denied as “baseless.”
The PDP, once Nigeria’s ruling party and political powerhouse, is now deeply fractured. Under acting national chairman Umar Damagum, the party is split into at least three camps: one loyal to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, another aligned with FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, and a third under Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed.
This fragmentation has left the PDP unable to mount any meaningful challenge to the APC. Senator Ned Nwoko’s defection in January cited “deep divisions and internal strife” as the breaking point.
The Labour Party (LP), which enjoyed a surge in popularity during the 2023 elections—particularly among young and urban voters—has also become embroiled in court cases and leadership disputes. Likewise, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) is grappling with internal chaos in Kano, its stronghold, where several lawmakers have defected to the APC.
Patronage, Intimidation, and the Death of Policy Debate
Observers argue that Nigeria’s political parties lack institutional frameworks and are heavily reliant on patronage politics. This has made them vulnerable to state influence and weakened their ability to serve as a check on government power.
There is growing suspicion that the APC uses state resources to entice or pressure opposition figures, sometimes threatening legal action for alleged corruption. The ruling party denies these claims.
Political analyst Dakuku Peterside said the defection wave is undermining democracy. “Some opposition leaders are now perceived as agents of the ruling party, which erodes public trust and neutralizes any credible resistance to APC’s dominance,” he noted.
He added, “The opposition has failed to articulate clear, alternative policies. For instance, when President Tinubu removed fuel subsidies in 2023, it was civil society—not political opposition—that led the public outcry. The opposition was missing in action.”
A Familiar Playbook
Ironically, today’s APC is deploying the same tactics once used by the PDP. In 1999, the PDP dominated the political space, controlling the presidency, both chambers of the National Assembly, and most state governments. By 2003, it had expanded its grip to 28 states and 76 Senate seats, largely by absorbing defectors from other parties.
Now, with the tide turned, it is unclear how many of the 11 governors elected under the PDP banner in 2023 remain loyal to the party.
As the APC consolidates power, Nigeria’s democracy risks becoming monolithic and unaccountable, lacking the robust opposition needed for genuine policy scrutiny and balanced governance.
