The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy is on course to achieve its fastest growth in over a decade, upgrading its forecast to 4.4% for 2026 and 2027.
The revised figures were disclosed in the Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, reflecting an increase of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points from the 3.7% and 3.8% projected in June 2026.
DRIVERS OF GROWTH
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s growth in 2025 rose to 4.2%, supported by:
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Expansion in the services sector, particularly finance and ICT
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A modest recovery in agriculture
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Nigeria’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products
Looking ahead, the Bank said growth in 2026 and 2027 will be underpinned by:
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Continued services sector expansion
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Agricultural rebound
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Modest acceleration in the non-oil industry
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with prudent monetary policy, are expected to support activity, improve investor sentiment, and reduce inflation,” the report noted.
“Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international prices, boosting fiscal revenues and strengthening the external balance.”
CHALLENGES AND REFORMS
The World Bank cautioned that sustaining this momentum will require addressing long-standing structural challenges.
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Fiscal rules adopted in 2007 aimed at reducing oil revenue volatility have been weakly enforced, due to institutional limitations.
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Current reforms are focused on tackling structural bottlenecks to ensure that growth is durable and inclusive.
GLOBAL CONTEXT
Globally, the World Bank observed that the economy is more resilient than expected, despite trade tensions and policy uncertainties.
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Global growth is projected to ease slightly to 2.6% in 2026, before rising to 2.7% in 2027, an upward revision from previous forecasts.
