For a politician as controversial and unyielding as former Kaduna State Governor Nasir el-Rufai, walking back his earlier, scathing description of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as corrupt and untrustworthy could prove politically damaging.
El-Rufai may have exited the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in anger, plunged into the unstable Social Democratic Party (SDP) without hesitation, and now landed—albeit cautiously—in the litigation-troubled African Democratic Congress (ADC). Yet, he remains no novice when it comes to safeguarding his personal interests and political survival.
Ordinarily defiant on most matters, the former governor is noticeably restrained when speaking about his SDP experience—a misadventure from which even his famed political ingenuity offers no escape. His current caution within the ADC is likely a product of the bruising lessons of recent months. For now, he appears willing to bide his time, hoping the party can first overcome its legal entanglements and then allow him and other restless “Young Turks” to wrest control from the old guard led by Atiku, steering the party towards a fresh direction in which he plays a pivotal role.
While former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola busies himself courting disaffected supporters in the Southwest, el-Rufai is positioning himself—when the moment comes—to take over as the ADC’s chief agitator. His trademark style of aggressive rhetoric and political brinkmanship will remain intact, though perhaps without the same unwavering dedication he gave to past political battles.
In recent weeks, he has been deliberate in his choice of words, preferring to speak of a broad coalition to unseat the APC rather than committing fully to ADC’s cause—an understandable move since he is not yet a formal party member. Notably, he has avoided putting complete faith in Atiku’s candidacy, a sign of his discomfort in backing someone he once condemned in terms harsh enough to make even his allies uneasy.
Adding to his hesitation is a growing awareness that the national mood appears firmly against a northern presidential candidate in 2027. This realisation not only frees him from any perceived obligation to Atiku but also stokes his interest in becoming a potential running mate to a southern flagbearer. His shortlist could eventually narrow to either Peter Obi—whose so-called “six million-strong” 2023 vote base is widely overstated—or Rotimi Amaechi, whose chief political asset, critics say, is his outsized self-regard. Still, the ADC’s legal and internal administrative crises are far from resolved, making any predictions about its future highly speculative.
Despite the uncertainty, el-Rufai has already begun weighing his options for the 2027 race. To strengthen his prospects, he must confront two key challenges. First, he needs to decide how far to push his self-styled “messianic” image—along with its accompanying rhetoric, which frames Nigeria’s political future as a stark choice between his vision and what he paints as the APC’s path to ruin.
His son, Bashir, has already echoed this apocalyptic tone on social media. On August 1, Bashir posted on X (formerly Twitter): “Nigeria can become great again. Unfortunately or fortunately (depending on context), a few certain people have to kpai (die) to achieve this dream.” Two weeks later, he amplified his father’s prediction ofa looming catastrophe unless the political order changes.
El-Rufai has shown no inclination to rein in his son’s inflammatory comments—unsurprising, given his own penchant for dire warnings. In recent interviews, he has described the APC as “dangerous to Nigeria’s future,” warning that its return to power would destroy national unity. Personally, he has cast the next presidential election not merely as a contest but as “the fight of our lives.”
With such rhetoric, el-Rufai is once again betting on high-stakes politics. Whether that gamble ends in victory or further political isolation remains to be seen.
