More than 300,000 people have been newly displaced in Mozambique since July as violence linked to an Islamic State–affiliated insurgency escalates in the country’s north, raising concerns that authorities lack a clear strategy to end the conflict.
The crisis, which has unfolded largely outside global attention amid wars elsewhere and declining foreign aid, has now displaced over one million people in total. Many families have been forced to flee multiple times as attacks continue.
The insurgency began in October 2017 in Cabo Delgado province, when fighters aligned with Islamic State-Mozambique launched their first assaults. The conflict drew international attention in March 2021 after a deadly attack on the town of Palma, where more than 600 people were killed during the assault and the subsequent military operation to retake the town.
Despite the deployment of Rwandan troops in 2021 to support Mozambican forces, the violence has not been fully contained. Rwanda initially sent 1,000 soldiers and now maintains an estimated force of between 4,000 and 5,000 personnel. However, attacks on civilians have increased this year, according to conflict monitoring groups.
In November alone, more than 100,000 people were displaced as joint military operations pushed insurgents southward into Nampula province, marking their furthest expansion yet. By the end of that month, the number of newly displaced people had risen to over 350,000, up sharply from the previous year.
Conflict analysts say insurgents have grown increasingly bold, while security forces appear less effective than in earlier phases of the intervention. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), at least 549 people have been killed in more than 300 attacks this year, with civilians accounting for over half of the deaths. Since 2017, nearly 2,800 civilians have been killed in the conflict.
Mozambique’s president has expressed interest in dialogue with insurgents, but security experts argue that meaningful engagement—particularly with affected communities—has been limited. Critics also note that military efforts appear heavily focused on protecting a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas project, rather than ensuring broader civilian security.
Human rights groups report that insurgents have increasingly abducted children for forced labour, marriage, or recruitment as fighters. The current wave of displacement has heightened the risk of sexual violence and exploitation, especially for women and children. Of those displaced in November, an estimated 70,000 were children.
Humanitarian agencies warn that support for displaced communities is shrinking. Donors have funded just over half of the humanitarian response needed this year, leaving many people in overcrowded camps with limited access to food, healthcare, and basic services.
Aid workers say displaced families are exhausted after years of conflict and instability, with many simply hoping to return home, resume farming, and rebuild their lives once peace is restored.
