The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.4 percent, rising from the 4.2 percent projection released in October 2025.
The revised outlook was included in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook, unveiled yesterday. The adjustment reflects a more optimistic assessment of Nigeria’s medium-term growth prospects amid ongoing policy reforms and a broader regional economic recovery.
The IMF noted that the improved projection is part of its global economic review, which expects stability in the coming years. Nigeria’s growth upgrade aligns with a general strengthening of economies across Sub-Saharan Africa, rather than being an isolated revision.
The increase follows a period of significant economic adjustments in Nigeria, driven by policy reforms and efforts to restore macroeconomic stability. In its October 2025 report, the IMF had highlighted inflationary pressures, fiscal constraints, and structural bottlenecks as key risks to growth.
Since then, Nigerian policymakers have continued implementing reforms to enhance fiscal coordination, stabilize the macroeconomic environment, and boost productivity in key sectors.
The Fund emphasized that deepening structural reforms remains critical for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth in emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.
At the regional level, the IMF also raised Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth projections—from 4.0 percent to 4.1 percent for 2025, and from 4.3 percent to 4.4 percent for 2026—indicating a broadly shared recovery across the region.
Globally, the IMF forecasts economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, roughly consistent with 3.3 percent growth recorded in 2025. The relatively steady outlook reflects a balance between challenges from shifting trade policies and gains from technology-driven investments, including artificial intelligence, supported by accommodative financial conditions.
The IMF also projects global inflation to continue declining, with headline inflation expected to drop from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 3.8 percent in 2026, and further to 3.4 percent in 2027.
