Energy experts and downstream operators have warned that fuel prices in Nigeria could rise again if global crude oil surpasses $90 per barrel amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
The recent conflict in the Middle East has heightened volatility in international oil markets, raising concerns about Nigeria’s domestic fuel pricing, even as local refining efforts, including operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, continue. Petrol currently sells between N824 and N880 per litre across major cities, following a recent price adjustment that lowered the refinery’s ex-depot rate by N25 per litre to N774.
Experts noted that sustained escalation in the region, especially around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, could feed risk premiums into global oil prices, which have already risen about 10 per cent over the weekend as several oil majors suspended tanker movements. The waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and handles a large portion of global oil shipments, meaning any disruption could trigger supply shocks and price spikes.
Kelvin Emmanuel, CEO of Dairy Hills, explained that Nigeria remains highly exposed to global oil pricing because the Dangote Refinery still imports a significant portion of its crude feedstock. He warned that higher crude prices, coupled with increased war risk insurance premiums for tanker vessels, could force a revision of petrol and diesel prices domestically.
Similarly, Olatide Jeremiah, CEO of Petroleumprice.ng, said that while Nigeria has the continent’s largest refinery, dependence on imported crude leaves the country vulnerable to international market shocks. He urged authorities to boost domestic crude production and curb oil theft to reduce reliance on foreign feedstock.
Energy law expert Dayo Ayoade highlighted that, with the removal of fuel subsidies, any global crude price increase directly impacts local fuel prices. Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare advised caution, noting that today’s global oil market is more diversified and responsive than during past geopolitical crises, meaning price spikes may be temporary.
Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, said marketers are closely monitoring developments and will adjust supply and pricing as needed.
The tensions escalated after coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran, resulting in retaliatory attacks and heightening fears of a wider conflict. Brent crude jumped about 10 per cent to $80 per barrel, and analysts predict prices could rise to $100 if hostilities persist.
Despite OPEC+ approving a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day effective April, analysts warned that any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly a quarter of global seaborne oil, could still drive global prices higher.
Experts stressed that Nigeria’s energy security depends on increasing domestic crude production, ensuring sufficient supply to local refineries, and reducing oil theft, to mitigate the impact of global price shocks on consumers.
