HeadlineNews.News | Special Report.
Growing conversations across parts of Lagos State are drawing renewed attention to an emerging grassroots anxiety ahead of the 2027 general elections: fears among some indigenous communities that demographic changes, intensified voter registration drives, and uneven political participation could reshape the state’s electoral balance in unpredictable ways.
The debate has been reignited by reports circulating from the Badagry–Shibiri–Iyana Iba axis and parts of Ojo Local Government, suggesting that certain migrant communities are mobilising actively for Permanent Voter Card (PVC) registration, while sections of indigenous populations remain politically indifferent or economically discouraged.
Although such accounts remain difficult to independently verify in full, they reflect a deeper political reality: Lagos, Nigeria’s most cosmopolitan state, has increasingly become a flashpoint where migration, commerce, electoral power, and identity politics intersect.
Constitutional Openness and the Reality of Local Exclusion Nationwide.
Nigeria’s Constitution guarantees freedom of movement and political participation for all citizens.
Voting rights are tied to citizenship and residency, not ethnicity, and every eligible Nigerian resident is entitled to register under the law.
Yet stakeholders note an enduring national contradiction: while Lagos is expected to remain endlessly open and permissive, many other states across the federation quietly maintain informal restrictions around land ownership, market access, and local political dominance—creating a perception of double standards.
Supporters of indigenous rights argue that Lagos’ anxiety is therefore rooted not simply in politics, but in an imbalance of expectations: that the nation’s commercial capital must bear the full burden of national openness, even when host communities feel politically displaced or culturally exposed.
Indigene Identity and the Duty of State Protection.
The Constitution itself recognises indigenous communities as part of Nigeria’s federal identity. Section 25(1)(a) defines citizenship by birth through ancestry linked to:
“a community indigenous to Nigeria…”
For many groups, this affirms that indigene identity is not merely sentimental, but constitutionally acknowledged within Nigeria’s national fabric.
In addition, the Land Use Act places a custodial obligation on state governments over land and communal stability.
Section 1 provides that all land is vested in the Governor to be held:
“in trust for the people…”
For indigenous stakeholders, this reinforces the argument that state governments have a duty to protect local land interests, cultural roots, and communal stability—especially in a high-pressure cosmopolitan environment like Lagos, where land ownership patterns, informal syndicates, and demographic shifts can easily generate tension.
2023 Elections and the Legacy of Voter Intimidation.
The 2023 elections remain central to these anxieties.
Reports from observers documented incidents of voter intimidation and suppression in parts of Lagos, contributing to reduced turnout and heightened mistrust.
For many ruling-party supporters, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s loss in Lagos during that election was interpreted as more than an outcome—it was seen as a warning signal that the political balance of the state can no longer be taken for granted.
Grassroots Poverty and Unequal Political Mobilisation.
Analysts stress that the vulnerability of indigenous political participation is often driven less by migration than by poverty and disengagement.
In many low-income communities, voter registration requires transportation support, mobilisation, or civic incentives, while more politically motivated populations may organise effectively without such barriers.
This imbalance in participation can distort outcomes and deepen resentment.
Federal Lessons: Residency and Electoral Order.
In federal systems such as the United States, elections are structured around clear residency-based jurisdiction: citizens vote where they are legally resident, under state-administered registration rules designed to reduce disputes over local political balance.
Such models illustrate that federations often manage diversity by tying electoral participation to transparent residency frameworks, helping sustain stability at sub-national levels.
The Reform Debate: What Lagos Can Lawfully Do.
Experts caution that the solution is not ethnic exclusion, but stronger governance safeguards that protect host communities while preserving constitutional citizenship.
Lagos State, working with Southwest counterparts, could consider stabilising measures such as:
• Collaboration with INEC to ensure voter registration reflects genuine residency and prevents transient political manipulation.
• Stronger enforcement of tax, business, and economic compliance across commercial corridors, exposing informal or criminal syndicates exploiting the openness of Lagos.
• Tougher anti-intimidation frameworks to ensure no resident or indigene is prevented from voting, as alleged in parts of Lagos in 2023.
• Expanded community investment in riverine and border districts so indigenous populations are not rendered economically vulnerable or politically marginalised.
• Pursuit of constitutional reforms through lawful amendment processes if Nigerians desire clearer residency-based electoral safeguards.
A Southwest Governance Imperative Before 2027
As Nigeria approaches 2027, these tensions underscore a pressing truth: electoral stability cannot be assumed in a rapidly evolving federation.
For the Southwest, the task is not to inflame division, but to confront legitimate indigenous anxieties through lawful reforms, civic protection, and proactive governance before grievances mutate into insecurity.
Southwest Governors must urgently convene on electoral peace-building, residency integrity, and the protection of host communities—particularly in Lagos’ border, riverine, and commercial corridors where demographic pressures are most acute.
State Houses of Assembly across the region also have a duty to pursue stabilising frameworks that strengthen local governance without violating constitutional citizenship, including land-use transparency, economic regulation, and community security protocols to prevent disenfranchisement in future elections.
At the federal level, the National Assembly must recognise that Nigeria’s constitutional framework is increasingly strained by outdated assumptions in a highly mobile and unequal society.
If modern residency safeguards, clearer federal balance, and credible local autonomy are now required to preserve peace, those reforms must be pursued through constitutional amendment—not denial or crisis-driven reaction.
Lagos remains Nigeria’s economic engine and most cosmopolitan hub. But openness without structure can breed instability, and diversity without safeguards can fuel resentment.
The time to act is not in 2027.
The time is now.
The National Patriots Movement notes with concern the growing anxieties across parts of Lagos State regarding voter registration, demographic pressures, and allegations of intimidation witnessed during the 2023 elections. Lagos remains Nigeria’s foremost cosmopolitan and economic hub, but openness must be balanced with structure, civic responsibility, and the protection of host communities.
We urge INEC, Southwest Governors, State Houses of Assembly, and the National Assembly to act early through lawful reforms that strengthen residency integrity, prevent disenfranchisement, and preserve communal stability. Electoral competition must never be allowed to degenerate into ethnic tension or insecurity.
The time for proactive leadership and constitutional modernisation is now, not on the eve of 2027.
— The National Patriots Movement.
Princess G. Adebajo-Fraser. MFR
The Arewa O’Odua of Yorubaland.
I THINK THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE GIVEN URGENT ATTENTION & FORWARDED TO THE RELEVANT PARTY LEADERS 👌
From my inbox
” Good morning sir , our people are not going for new voters registration exercise .igbo people are secretly mobilizing their people for massive voters registration around badagry shibiri iyana iba axis of Lagos state . Our politician
Leaders in Lagos are sleeping ooo”
I got similar report from the Igbede town of Ojo LGA yesterday.
I can imagine what is going on in the Sabo, Ilufe, Alaba, Etegbin, Ìmúdẹ and even in the Riverine communities of the Aworis in Ojo LGA. Those Riverine communities were the only insurance that the Aworis had in Amuwo-Odofin, Ojo and Badagry LGAs used to have in those days but now they have become very opened, lands are being sold their like noodles and bread and the greatest beneficiaries are the drug-peddling syndicates of Alaba International and Trade Fair Markets.
Those places are seething with Ibo population.
Those guys are mobilizing massively at the INEC registration while my people are sitting complacently at home. They have to be mobilised with ₦2,000 by Political Leaders to come out.
The Oluomo Regiments have saved us in the past and may still be able to help save the situation in 2027 and 2031 but what happens after that time especially when Asiwaju is out of Power, has become too old and weak or, worse still, no longer with us?
You saw the example in the 2023 elections where Peter Obi who was afraid to campaign in Kano was moving freely in Lagos executing Market-to-Market campaigns.
The Federal Might simply locked down Lagos with the MILITARY, neutralising the Oluomo Regiments and allowing the Ibo Zionists to perform freely in Lagos in that year.
They literally rigged the elections for Peter Obi in Lagos right under our noses. In places like Okota, Festac, Amuwo-Odofin, Lekki, Ajao Estate these people were so bold that they reportedly prevented huge population of known Yoruba APC supporters from voting.
They will NEVER do this in Akwa Ibom, Edo, Delta and even in the he Rivers and Delta States closest to them. They won’t attempt it in Benue, Plateau or Adamawa. They won’t even permit themselves to dream of it in Kano, Sokoto, Borno or Katsina.
It is only ALWAYS possible in Lagos and across Yoruba land.
We are the liberal people, very irresponsibly complacent and accommodating.
We are educated and exposed, better educated and exposed than the Europeans and Arabs of UAE who practice self-preservation
We are Ọmọlúàbí, as if Ọmọlúàbí means the same thing as Ọmọ́gọ̀.
We have too many ignorant idiots with Yoruba blood running in their veins who will derail us with their foolishness.
Our Politicians are so blind and visionless they are only able to show up every four years with the YORÙBÁ RONÚ slogan and once they get what they want you don’t see them again. They begin to plan for their own children and go about with the same people plotting their destruction.
The power of politics is at the grassroots and that level is where the vulnerability of Yoruba lies. It is the same across Yoruba land with varying degrees.
Our people are miserably poor at that level.
Our people wake up every day thinking of the next meal. Many of them lack the physical strength, interest and motivation to even walk to the INEC centres for registration.
My people have to be “mobilized” by the power of ₦2,000 + cups of rice to go register to vote and to vote on the day of elections.
They won’t go if you don’t give them.
They have no other motivation to participate in the electoral process order than immediate gratification which lasts them only for a few hours
And you can’t blame them. Our Politicians are criminally selfish. They have weaponized poverty, religion and ignorance against our people so they can use them endlessly for their political gains.
And it is about to backfire.
We are doing these stupid things in a “One Nigeria” UNITARY SYSTEM where the CONSTITUTION allows the Ibos to empty their whole of their population in Lagos.
These are a people desperately driven by a ZIONIST IDEOLOGY to take over your land. They don’t need anybody to give them a Kobo to take interest in the politics of Lagos State and Yoruba land where they have identified a clear opportunity in our weaknesses, of our lackadaisical attitude and the carelessness and lack of vision of our politicians.
The Ibos have the population already in Lagos.
One day they will have the courage to stand up to physical confrontation with the Yoruba people of Lagos especially when they have a legion of ” Gbadebos” and Farotimis on their side to use against us.
I know how these people think.
They won’t show up in 2027 and 2031 because Tinubu is still there by God’s grace but in 2035 when an Aboki comes on board and we still have ONE UN-RESTRUCTURED NIGERIA, the Ibos should have grown in population, money and daring and with the support of the Aboki President and possible absence of a Tinubu or his suitable successor [ God forbid it is Seyi ] they will practically run over Lagos.
Please take the statement below to the bank:
IF the POLITICAL POWER of Lagos ever gets into the hands of the Ibos they will NEVER EVER let go of it and it will be with them FOREVER. The entire Yoruba SW will crumble so fast that we all soon be looking for asylum in other African countries.
We are playing with fire 🔥
You may think I am mad or paranoid but I have seen these things happen severally in history so I will keep reminding you so you don’t say in future that you were not told.
#Igbimoomoyoruba
#ThinkYorubaFirst
© Adedamola Adetayo
28 January 2026
