Industry experts have warned that global crude oil prices could rise to as much as $130 per barrel if the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran escalate further, potentially causing renewed instability in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
The conflict in the Middle East has already pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, up from about $85 previously, increasing pressure on fuel prices across many countries, including Nigeria.
As a result, the price of Premium Motor Spirit—commonly known as petrol—rose above ₦1,000 per litre in several parts of Nigeria in recent days.
Experts Warn of Prolonged Conflict
The Chief Executive Officer of Petroleum.ng, Olajide Jeremiah, said the ongoing conflict could continue to influence global oil markets.
“We do not see the war ending soon,” Jeremiah said. “The two major parties are still talking tough, and both are significant players in the global oil market. The escalation of the war and the destruction of key oil and gas installations are already affecting operations.”
Similarly, the National President of the Oil and Gas Services Providers Association of Nigeria, Colman Obasi, warned that prolonged conflict would continue to push oil prices higher.
“At OGSPAN, we believe the war may last longer because there are currently no clear signs of de-escalation. Continued conflict will fuel speculation in the global oil market and drive prices upward,” he said.
Global financial institution JPMorgan Chase also projected that Brent Crude could reach about $120 per barrel if disruptions occur in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route for oil exports.
Petrol Prices Stabilise in Nigeria
Meanwhile, petrol prices in Nigeria appear to have stabilised slightly after rising sharply earlier in the week.
Market checks show that petrol is currently selling for about ₦1,040 per litre in Lagos, while the price is around ₦1,080 per litre in Abuja.
The price adjustment follows a recent increase by the Dangote Refinery, which raised its ex-gantry price of petrol to ₦995 per litre.
At retail outlets operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, petrol was sold at about ₦1,040 per litre, up from the previous price of ₦993.
Other independent marketers such as Emadeb Energy and PM Petroleum also sold petrol at ₦1,040 per litre.
In Abuja, stations including Gegu Oil Nigeria sold petrol for about ₦1,050 per litre, while Empire Energy sold the product at ₦1,080 per litre.
Possible Impact on Nigeria
Analysts say further escalation of the Middle East conflict could tighten global oil supply and drive prices even higher, which may eventually lead to further increases in fuel prices in Nigeria.
For a country heavily dependent on petroleum products for transportation and energy, any prolonged surge in crude oil prices could significantly affect the cost of living and business operations across the nation.
