The pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) could fall to around N800 per litre in the coming weeks or months, following declining global crude oil prices and the reintroduction of the naira-for-crude deal for local refiners, industry experts said on Wednesday.
This projection came as Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its ex-depot petrol price to N835 per litre, its second price cut in less than a week. This represents a N30 reduction from N865 previously, and a N45 drop from the N880 rate used last Wednesday.
According to the refinery, the new price includes charges from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). A pro forma invoice and data from petroleumprice.ng confirmed the new pricing.
Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, stated the refinery remains committed to making petrol affordable for Nigerians. The latest price drop marks the third in six weeks by Dangote.
“Our goal is to deliver quality fuel at affordable prices and support economic growth,” Chiejina said.
New Regional Petrol Prices:
- Lagos: N890 (from N920)
- South-West: N900 (from N930)
- North-West & North-Central: N910 (from N940)
- South-East, South-South & North-East: N920 (from N950)
Key marketers, including MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde, and Tecno Oil, will distribute the product.
Dangote also adjusted diesel and jet fuel prices. Diesel is now $608/MT + $70 surcharge, payable in naira at N1,650/$ or in dollars. Jet fuel will sell at $664.75, plus applicable surcharges. Cooking gas prices remain unchanged.
Chiejina said the price cuts will ripple across various sectors, easing inflation and boosting purchasing power—especially beneficial during the post-Easter period.
Market Forces at Play
The anticipated petrol price drop is also linked to:
- Brent crude trading at around $65 per barrel, with speculation it could fall further to $50.
- Resumed naira-for-crude agreements, reducing dependence on forex.
- Declining import landing costs. On Tuesday, the cost of imported PMS fell to N853 per litre, down from N856.75 the previous day.
From April 8–16, Nigerian marketers imported 117,000 metric tonnes (approx. 156.9 million litres) of petrol through Lagos and Calabar ports, according to documents from the Nigerian Ports Authority and Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.
Despite these developments, retail pump prices across Nigeria have not yet reflected the cuts, as marketers continue to monitor market dynamics.
Policy Backing
The Federal Government, through the Ministry of Finance, reaffirmed its commitment to the naira-for-crude initiative, describing it as a long-term policy to improve energy security and reduce forex dependency.
A recent meeting between the Finance Minister, Wale Edun, and Dangote Refinery representatives reviewed the policy’s progress.
Expert Opinion
Chinedu Ukadike, spokesperson for the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), confirmed the price drop is a direct result of the naira-for-crude policy and global crude price trends.
“If crude hits $50 per barrel, we may see petrol prices between N650–N700 per litre,” he said. However, he noted potential losses for marketers as a new challenge.
