By Princess Gloria Adebajo-Fraser MFR.
The National Patriots.
Nigeria marks 65 years of independence with a mix of reflection, concern, and renewed hope. From October 1, 1960, when the green-and-white flag replaced the Union Jack, Nigeria emerged as the most populous Black nation on earth — blessed with vast human and natural resources, but constrained by political instability, corruption, policy summersaults, and missed opportunities.
At 65, the country faces daunting challenges, yet the Tinubu administration has begun to take steps that no Nigerian leader previously dared — bold reforms that, though unpopular in the short run, could lay a strong foundation for sustainable growth if properly managed with citizen-focused policies.
Historical Context & Comparative Analysis
When Nigeria gained independence in 1960, its GDP per capita was higher than countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, and South Korea — nations that have since transformed into economic powerhouses. Singapore, for example, had a per capita GDP of around $428 in 1960, compared to Nigeria’s $96. Today, Singapore’s GDP per capita exceeds $70,000, while Nigeria lags at under $2,500.
What accounts for this divergence?
Policy consistency: Countries like Malaysia and South Korea implemented long-term industrial, educational, and infrastructure strategies, while Nigeria frequently shifted direction with each administration.
Governance and corruption: Weak institutions, military coups, and mismanagement of oil wealth crippled Nigeria’s development.
Dependency on oil: Unlike Asian economies that diversified early, Nigeria became dependent on crude oil, leaving the economy vulnerable to price shocks.
Nigeria at 65: The Reform Era
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has demonstrated rare political courage. The removal of fuel subsidy, floating of the naira, and tax reform plans are moves previous governments avoided for fear of political backlash. These steps, though bitter like strong medicine, are necessary for long-term economic healing.
However, reforms without safety nets are incomplete. Nations such as Indonesia (fuel subsidy reforms, 2005) and Egypt (currency reforms, 2016) combined tough economic measures with social support programs — cash transfers, subsidized transport, and targeted food assistance — to cushion their citizens. Nigeria must follow suit urgently.
What Needs to Be Done
1. Short- and Medium-Term Safety Nets
Implement cash transfer programs targeted at the poorest households.
Regulate transport and logistics costs to reduce inflationary pressures.
Consider a crawling peg exchange rate strategy rather than a full naira float, to avoid uncontrolled depreciation.
Review fuel pricing to avoid excessive cost spikes that ripple into food and transport.
2. Tax Reforms with Accountability
Expand the tax base to capture blue-chip companies that evade taxes.
Ensure transparency in tax revenue utilization — free primary healthcare, free basic education, and social support schemes should be guaranteed.
Emulate countries like South Africa and Brazil, where taxpayers see direct benefits of compliance.
3. People-Centric Governance
Adopt grassroots initiatives like the Grassroot Perception Initiative (GPI) to rebuild trust and strengthen citizen engagement.
Involve resourceful Nigerians — innovators, entrepreneurs, diaspora professionals — in developing homegrown solutions.
Improve communication between government and people to explain reforms and timelines for relief.
4. Learning from the Global Experience
Countries like Ghana and Pakistan have secured IMF loans but renegotiated terms to reduce the harshest conditionalities.
Nigeria must engage Bretton Woods institutions to soften loan conditions — prioritizing long-term reforms over short-term austerity.
Tinubu Administration: Commendable Boldness
Despite mounting criticism, the administration deserves recognition for breaking decades-old policy barriers. The subsidy regime had drained over ₦11 trillion in the last decade with little benefit to ordinary citizens. Floating the naira, though painful, curtails arbitrage that enriched a select few.
However, reform is not reform until it touches the lives of the people positively. Nigerians need assurance that the sacrifices they are making will not be in vain.
Conclusion: Nigeria’s Path Forward
At 65, Nigeria has taken bold but painful strides. The reforms introduced are necessary but incomplete without cushioning mechanisms. Floating the naira in a controlled manner, regulating fuel costs, implementing grassroots initiatives like GPI, and enforcing transparent tax reforms will ease the people’s burden.
Nigeria must not just borrow lessons from Singapore, Malaysia, and South Korea but adopt and adapt them to its unique context. If Tinubu’s administration can combine courage with compassion, policy boldness with people-centered governance, and reform with relief, then Nigeria can finally move from the promise of greatness to the reality of prosperity.
Despite the hardship, I remain an incurable optimist: Nigeria at 65 is still on the right path to recovery — the task now is to shield her people from the storm while steering the ship to safe waters.
Princess G. Adebajo-Fraser MFR.
Founder, The National Patriots.
Perception management & Governance Consultant.
Public Analyst.
