Nigeria’s crude oil production declined in August, dropping below its OPEC quota after two months of exceeding it. According to fresh data from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, sourced from the government, Nigeria averaged 1.43 million barrels per day (mbpd) in August, down from 1.507 mbpd in July and 1.505 mbpd in June—a shortfall of about 66,000 bpd from its 1.5 mbpd OPEC target.
The August dip, a 73,000 bpd decrease from July, disrupted the momentum of what the government hailed as a significant achievement under President Bola Tinubu’s administration. Production had shown promise, averaging 1.47 mbpd in Q1 and 1.48 mbpd in Q2, with peaks in January (1.54 mbpd), June, and July meeting or surpassing the OPEC quota. However, output fell to 1.46 mbpd in February, 1.40 mbpd in March, rose to 1.48 mbpd in April, and slipped to 1.45 mbpd in May.
The government’s optimism was fueled by June and July gains, with ambitions to hit 2 mbpd. Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, highlighted the 2024 Project One Million Barrels Initiative, which reactivated dormant fields, expedited regulatory approvals, and improved upstream efficiencies. Komolafe noted that oil and condensate production rose from 1.4 mbpd to 1.7 mbpd, with unreconciled daily output averaging 1.7–1.83 mbpd, aiming for 2.5 mbpd by 2026.
Despite this, August’s decline poses a setback. President Tinubu tasked the new Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited board, chaired by Ahmadu Kida and led by Group CEO Bayo Ojulari, with boosting oil production to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030, alongside increasing gas output to 8 billion cubic feet daily by 2027 and 10 billion by 2030. NNPC also aims to raise its refining output to 200,000 barrels by 2027 and 500,000 by 2030.
Ojulari reported progress, with production rising from 1.5 mbpd to 1.7 mbpd in two months, targeting 1.9 mbpd by December. He emphasized ongoing efforts, including refinery maintenance and stakeholder collaboration.
However, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has repeatedly claimed Nigeria’s potential to reach 3 mbpd.
Nigeria’s 2025 started strong, with January production at 1.539 mbpd, surpassing the OPEC quota by 39,000 bpd. Yet, the country consistently missed its OPEC quota in 2022, 2023, and 2024. While June and July 2025 showed promise, August’s drop underscores the oil sector’s ongoing volatility.
