Nigeria failed to reach its OPEC-approved crude oil production target of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January 2026, extending a six-month streak of underperformance.
The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report showed that the country produced about 1.459 mbpd in January, up slightly from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025, an increase of roughly 38,000 barrels per day. Despite this marginal gain, production remained below the quota, continuing a shortfall that began in August 2025.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicated that production had dipped in December, falling from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd, despite government efforts to boost output. In 2025, Nigeria only met or slightly exceeded its OPEC quota in January, June, and July, while production lagged in nine other months, with a year-on-year decline of over 80,000 barrels per day.
Although output showed modest recoveries in April (1.49 mbpd) and May (1.45 mbpd) and briefly exceeded the quota in June and July at 1.51 mbpd, the country slipped below the target in subsequent months.
Looking ahead, Nigeria aims to increase production, especially as the Dangote Refinery now operates at full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. NUPRC’s new Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, outlined a plan focused on optimising production, expanding revenue, ensuring regulatory predictability, and maintaining safe and sustainable operations.
Eyesan emphasized that the strategy aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, aiming to raise crude output to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030. The commission intends to recover shut-in volumes, reduce natural field decline, cut losses, and accelerate new production projects without adding regulatory burdens or costs for operators.
