As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid for 2027 draws closer, sharp divisions have emerged in Northern Nigeria over whether he deserves a second term.
A section of the region, including political blocs, governors, and traditional leaders, argue that Tinubu should be allowed to complete his constitutionally guaranteed eight years in office. They point to his administration’s infrastructural projects and security efforts.
Among the flagship projects frequently cited are the Abuja–Kaduna–Kano Expressway, the Sokoto–Badagry Super Highway, and the Kano–Maiduguri Dual Carriageway. The Presidency also highlights agricultural and energy initiatives, such as the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano gas pipeline project, as proof of its commitment to Northern development. Governors from the North-East have equally praised Tinubu’s counter-insurgency measures.
However, critics within the region argue that insecurity remains rife, with Northern elders urging the President to declare a state of emergency in the North. Others, like Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, allege that national resources are skewed towards the South, deepening poverty and hardship in the region.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) insists that the North will back an alternative candidate in 2027, citing dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s handling of insecurity and the economy.
CPC Bloc Divided
The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), once the stronghold of the late President Muhammadu Buhari, is also split. A faction led by Senator Tanko Al-Makura and House Speaker Tajudeen Abbas has pledged total loyalty to Tinubu, promising grassroots mobilization for his re-election.
Tinubu has rewarded CPC loyalists with key appointments, including Al-Makura as Chairman of UBEC. During a recent visit, the bloc commended Tinubu for organizing a state burial for Buhari, describing it as a mark of loyalty and legacy preservation.
Yet, another faction of CPC members remains unconvinced, faulting Tinubu’s governance style and warning that Buhari’s famed 14.8 million vote bank may not automatically transfer to him.
Buhari’s Legacy Votes at Stake
Political observers note that Buhari’s enduring popularity in the North could play a decisive role in 2027. Some predict that his votes may splinter across multiple candidates, with figures like Rabiu Kwankwaso positioned to inherit a large share.
Fulani Dynamics
The Fulani community also shows mixed feelings. Groups like the Association of Matasan Fulani of Nigeria (AMFON) and several Fulani Ardos have endorsed Tinubu, praising his development efforts and loyalty to Buhari. But others remain uneasy over insecurity, detention of Fulani leaders, and perceived marginalization.
Northern Allies Rallying Behind Tinubu
Despite these divisions, Tinubu enjoys the support of influential Northern figures, including:
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Nuhu Ribadu, National Security Adviser
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Bello Matawalle, Minister of State for Defence
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Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, Minister of Defence
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Governor Uba Sani of Kaduna State
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Governor Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe State and Chairman of the Northern Governors’ Forum
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Ali Ndume, former Senator
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Abdulmumin Jibrin, federal lawmaker
These leaders have praised Tinubu for stabilizing the exchange rate, meeting revenue targets, and initiating food security programs.
The Road to 2027
Ultimately, the North remains a battleground in Tinubu’s re-election quest. With Buhari’s legacy votes hanging in the balance and opposition figures like Atiku Abubakar and Kwankwaso waiting in the wings, the outcome may depend on whether Tinubu can consolidate his Northern base while delivering on security and economic reforms.
