“Northern Reckoning: The Numbers, the Illusion of Power, and the Path to National Balance”
By Dr. Amiida, Senior Political Analyst, HeadlineNews.News
April 2025 — Abuja, Nigeria
A quiet but seismic shift is unfolding across Northern Nigeria. For decades, the North has been seen — and has seen itself — as Nigeria’s political stronghold, wielding influence through sheer demographic weight and coordinated voting blocs. But recent revelations and economic data have sparked an introspective reckoning.
Despite having the numbers, the North is awakening to a critical truth:
Population does not translate to prosperity, and political dominance without economic power is unsustainable.
The Numbers vs. the Reality
For decades, the North has enjoyed significant control of Nigeria’s political machinery. With 19 states, the region consistently delivers presidential mandates, governs voting patterns, and influences federal appointments. But a new set of statistics reveals a dangerous imbalance — not for the South, but for the North itself.
Population & Voting Power
Northern Nigeria accounts for approximately 54% of Nigeria’s population (National Population Commission, 2023 est.).
In the 2023 general elections, the region delivered over 45% of total votes cast nationwide.
Yet, 12 of Nigeria’s 20 poorest states are located in the North (NBS Poverty Report, 2022).
Economic Reality
Lagos State alone generates over N651 billion annually in Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) — more than the entire 19 northern states combined, which collectively generate around N610 billion (NBS IGR Report, 2023).
The GDP of Lagos State (approx. $150 billion) dwarfs that of most Northern states, some of which struggle to reach $3 billion annually.
Dr. Uche Igwe, a governance scholar at King’s College London, puts it bluntly:
“The North has the votes. The South has the vaults.”
A Historical Arrogance or Misguided Hegemony?
Post-independence Nigeria was shaped by a delicate balance of ethnic and regional power. But following the 1966 coups and the subsequent civil war, the North entrenched itself in the military and political class, often sidelining economic priorities in favour of federal leverage.
The myth of the “Northern Kingmaker” emerged — a perception that no president could emerge without Northern endorsement. But today’s political landscape is changing. The emergence of non-traditional power centers like Lagos, Anambra, and Rivers are rewriting the script.
“Numbers don’t vote unless they are mobilized, fed, and free,” says Professor Nafisa Abdullahi, political economist at BUK.
“You cannot king-make from a position of poverty.”
Internal Fractures: The Beginning of an Implosion
Banditry, Boko Haram, and ethno-religious violence have displaced over 2.5 million people in the North.
Youth unemployment in some Northern states exceeds 65% (NBS, 2024).
Literacy rates in Yobe, Kebbi, and Zamfara are under 40%, compared to above 85% in states like Imo and Lagos.
Inter-ethnic tensions, such as between Hausa and Fulani, or minorities in the Middle Belt, are beginning to weaken Northern unity itself.
Many Northern leaders are beginning to acknowledge that political power without economic development breeds resentment, radicalism, and regression.
The Path Forward: From Hegemony to Harmony
Rather than maintain an illusion of dominance, the North must cooperate, not compete, with the South. The country’s unity and progress depend on inter-regional collaboration, not rivalry.
Key Recommendations:
1. Invest in Education and Human Capital
The North must prioritize mass literacy, skills acquisition, and girls’ education to break the poverty cycle.
2. Decentralize Economic Development
Relying on federal allocations is a trap. States must build IGR capacity, attract private investment, and build local industries.
3. Reframe National Politics
Instead of insisting on rotational presidency or bloc voting, the North should adopt issue-based alliances that reflect national needs.
4. Strengthen Regional Dialogue
Political leaders must deconstruct the narrative of North vs. South and invest in elite consensus-building across all six geopolitical zones.
5. Confront Internal Contradictions
From almajiri reforms to insurgency containment, the North must solve its internal crises before projecting national leadership.
Conclusion: The Future is Shared, Not Seized
Nigeria cannot be ruled by numbers alone. Nor can it thrive on the illusion of political entitlement. The era of regional domination is fading — in its place, a new age of collaborative federalism and economic accountability must rise.
For the North, this is not the end of relevance. It is the beginning of responsibility.
Headlinenews.news special report.
Comments & Reactions from a cross sections of Nigerians after reading this special report.
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“Northern Reckoning: Power Without Prosperity”- Amiida Fraser MFR.
“The Illusion of Control: Why the North Must Rethink Its Role in Nigeria” – Professor Olatunde Sonaike
“Beyond Ballots: The Economic Truth the North Must Face” – Elder Statesman, former Head of State.
“Numbers Don’t Build Nations: The North’s Political Power vs Economic Weakness” – Retired Nigerian Ambassador.
“Nigeria at a Crossroads: The North’s Last Political Illusion” – Former Distinguished Senator.
