By Dr. G. Fraser MFR
Headlinenews.news Commentaries.
Nigeria’s Refinery Collapse: A Case Study in Policy Failure
Excerpt:
“If Shell and Dangote couldn’t fix the refineries, then clearly, the problem runs deeper than management. It’s systemic, technological, and political.”
Quote – Dr. G. Fraser, MFR, Petroleum Consultant, Fraser Consultants:
“We’ve been plugging holes in a sinking ship. A refinery should be a high-efficiency industrial plant, not a political job center.”
Comment:
No public refinery anywhere thrives on sentiment. Industrial logic must replace bureaucratic politics if there’s any hope of recovery.
President Tinubu: ‘This Refinery Shame Must End Under My Watch’
Excerpt:
“The Nigerian government cannot continue to import fuel while sitting on unused refining capacity. President Tinubu now promises full intervention.”
Quote – President Bola Ahmed Tinubu:
“We cannot continue to pour billions into a system that bleeds. Nigeria must have working refineries — or build new ones that work.”
Comment:
This public commitment is bold — but with years of broken promises behind us, only verifiable actions and timelines will move the needle.
Global Lessons Nigeria Refuses to Learn on Refinery Reform
Excerpt:
“India turned its refineries around with hybrid models. Brazil digitized Petrobras to stop corruption. Nigeria just kept recycling failure.”
Quote – Dr. Roberto Castillo, Energy Policy Advisor, Mexico Energy Secretariat:
“There’s no shame in copying success. The shame is in stubbornly repeating your own mistakes.”
Comment:
Benchmarking against better-performing peers should be mandatory, not optional. Nigeria’s refusal to adopt proven global frameworks is self-inflicted damage.
African Peer Comparison: Ghana’s Sankofa and Angola’s Sonangol Move Ahead
Excerpt:
“While Nigeria debates reform, Ghana has made its Sankofa Gas Project a regional model, and Angola’s Sonangol has restructured toward profitability.”
Quote – Wale Tinubu, CEO, Oando Group:
“Angola’s success lies in clear targets, lean operations, and getting politicians out of the boardroom. Nigeria must take notes.”
Comment:
The continent is changing. Nigeria’s status as a regional energy giant is slipping. Reform is not just needed — it’s overdue for survival.
Old Steel, New Problems: Are Nigeria’s Refineries Worth Saving?
Excerpt:
“Some of these refineries — built in the 1970s — may not be worth saving. A full demolition or modular rebuild may be cheaper.”
Quote – Dr. Irebami Ifadele, Royal Minerals Development Company:
“It’s emotional to keep the old refineries alive. But it’s economically suicidal.”
Comment:
History doesn’t owe us working refineries. The age and condition of these assets must be judged by science, not nostalgia.
Gas: The Billion-Dollar Missed Opportunity in Nigeria’s Energy Mix
Excerpt:
“Gas, a cleaner and increasingly demanded global fuel, remains underdeveloped in Nigeria despite massive reserves.”
Quote – Kenneth Yellowe, Global Gas & Refining Company:
“While we chase after oil, gas — our most strategic transition fuel — is wasting. The global window for monetization is closing fast.”
Comment:
Gas isn’t just a Plan B — it’s the most commercially viable lifeline Nigeria has in the next two decades. Delay is self-sabotage.
Digitalization: The Silver Bullet Against Refinery Corruption?
Excerpt:
“Digital refinery systems with real-time crude and product monitoring are now the global standard. Nigeria still operates like it’s 1982.”
Quote – Michael Fraser, Director, International Gas & Energy Services.
“Corruption hides in opacity. Digital systems leave no room to manipulate output, diversion, or maintenance claims.”
Comment:
A refinery that isn’t fully digital today is either leaking money or hiding it. Full digitalization must be a non-negotiable requirement in any future deal.
Leasing Over Selling: A Strategic Path Forward for FG Refineries
Excerpt:
“Nigeria must lease, not sell, its refineries — with performance-linked contracts and clawback clauses for non-performance.”
Quote – Dr. Amani Abou-Zeid, African Union Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy:
“Public-private models work when there’s alignment on service delivery, not just profit. Lease structures give governments leverage while demanding performance.”
Comment:
This isn’t about ideology. Leasing lets the government retain control without carrying the operational burden — the right balance for national assets.
Obasanjo: ‘I Tried. Even Dangote Couldn’t Fix It. Maybe It’s Time to Scrap It.’
Excerpt:
“The former president revealed Dangote paid $750 million to rescue the refineries, but still failed due to entrenched inefficiency and decay.”
Quote – Olusegun Obasanjo, Former President of Nigeria:
“If Shell with all its global expertise refused, and Dangote couldn’t crack it, then we must admit — the system is the problem.”
Comment:
Obasanjo’s admission isn’t just historical — it’s a warning. Any future intervention must first tear out the rot before pouring in money.
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