Nigeria may see the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) rise to N1,000 per litre in the coming days following a surge in global crude oil prices.
Fuel marketers told Saturday PUNCH that crude prices climbing above $70 per barrel could prompt another increase in both imported and locally refined petroleum products.
The development comes after Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised petrol prices from N739 to N839 per litre, coinciding with crude oil reaching a five-month high. The surge reflects market concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies if the United States takes action against Iran, one of OPEC’s major crude producers.
Crude oil market trends
According to Reuters, Brent crude futures rose $2.31, or 3.4%, to settle at $70.71 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $2.21, or 3.5%, to $65.42. By Friday afternoon, Brent traded at $70.89, with WTI at $65.80, indicating further upward movement. Brent serves as the global benchmark, meaning price hikes have international implications for refined petroleum products.
The US-Iran tensions, including potential targeted strikes and mass arrests in Iran, have pushed both benchmarks into technically overbought territory. Analysts warn that any disruption, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20 million barrels of oil per day, could drive prices higher. Iran was the third-largest OPEC producer in 2025, after Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Local market impact
Speaking to Saturday PUNCH, Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), said crude oil and exchange rates are key determinants of domestic fuel prices.
“Petrol could hit N1,000 per litre if the crude surge continues, especially in areas far from depots,” he noted. Ukadike stressed that international price movements directly affect local pump prices, placing pressure on marketers’ purchasing power.
The high prices are also affecting consumer behaviour. Ukadike said sales have slowed compared with the December festive period, as households and businesses reduce fuel consumption due to rising costs.
Another fuel dealer, speaking confidentially, noted that the landing cost of petrol could surpass N900 per litre if crude prices maintain their upward trajectory. “N1,000 per litre is not far-fetched. When crude was around $75 per barrel, petrol sold close to that price,” the dealer explained.
Dangote refinery production capacity
Since the recent price adjustments, most filling stations have updated their pump prices. In Lagos, petrol now sells between N830 and N859 per litre, with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited pricing PMS at N849, and MRS outlets at N839.
The Dangote refinery reaffirmed its ability to supply fuel above national demand, producing 75 million litres of petrol daily against an estimated domestic consumption of 50 million litres. Diesel production is 25 million litres daily, exceeding the estimated demand of 14 million litres, and aviation fuel output is 20 million litres daily, far above the 4 million-litre domestic need.
The refinery highlighted that producing above domestic demand strengthens market stability, reduces reliance on imports, and provides critical supply buffers. Dangote reiterated compliance with regulatory authorities and its commitment to ensuring consistent local supply, competitive pricing, and reliable distribution nationwide.
“With domestic refining capacity growing, Nigeria is better positioned to reduce foreign exchange exposure, improve supply security, and boost downstream efficiency through local production,” the refinery stated.
Following a recent gantry price increase from N699 to N799 per litre, marketers are required to adjust payments to match the new rates, after the refinery withdrew temporary festive price support.
