Nigeria Still Relies on Petrol Imports Despite Rising Domestic Refining in 2025
In 2025, petrol imports remained the main source of fuel for Nigeria, making up 62.47% of total Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) consumption, according to a recent report by The PUNCH.
This dependence persisted even as domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, scaled up production alongside state-owned and modular facilities, according to the latest midstream and downstream sector report from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The factsheet revealed that Nigerians consumed approximately 18.97 billion litres of petrol in 2025. Of this, oil marketing companies imported 11.85 billion litres, highlighting the country’s continued reliance on foreign supply. Domestic refineries contributed 7.54 billion litres, or about 37.53% of total consumption.
The data, based on volumes delivered into the domestic market, shows that while the Dangote refinery—the country’s only large-scale operational refinery—expanded supply through the year, imports still dominated the market.
Looking ahead, petrol import volumes are expected to fall significantly in 2026 if the Federal Government implements a planned 15% import tariff on PMS, as approved by President Bola Tinubu.
For decades, Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer, relied heavily on imported petrol due to underperforming state refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. The Dangote refinery’s launch in late 2024 marked a potential turning point for the sector, with expectations that it would reduce imports, improve energy security, and stabilize fuel supply.
However, NMDPRA data indicates that despite steady improvements in domestic refining, imports remained the dominant supply source in 2025. Factors such as gradual refinery ramp-up, crude supply arrangements, logistics challenges, and fluctuating demand contributed to the continued reliance on imports.
The Dangote refinery supplied nearly all domestic petrol in 2025, averaging 17–32 million litres per day and totaling 7.54 billion litres for the year, slightly below its annual target of 7.2 billion litres. Domestic output peaked in December at 32 million litres daily, reflecting a steady improvement in operations.
Monthly petrol consumption varied widely, from 1.60 billion litres in January to 1.97 billion litres in December, influenced by seasonal demand, logistics, and pricing. Petrol imports mirrored these trends, remaining the dominant supply source throughout the year, while domestic output gradually increased but fluctuated month to month.
Industry experts note that while Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has expanded significantly—from less than 5% in 2022 to roughly 40% in 2025—it has not yet fully replaced imports. Energy economist Professor Wumi Iledare stressed that the market still depends on the option to import for price stability and supply security, and that domestic supply has only reduced, not eliminated, petrol import reliance.
Similarly, Jeremiah Olatide, CEO of petroleumprice.ng, described 2025 as a milestone year for local refining, calling for further growth to at least 70% domestic production to maximize economic benefits, stabilize the naira, and create jobs. He highlighted that crude availability for refineries, especially Dangote, remains a key factor in reducing imports further.
While Dangote officials and some marketers assert that the refinery can meet national petrol demand, official NMDPRA data shows that imports continue to bridge gaps in supply. The report underscores the ongoing structural challenges in Nigeria’s downstream sector despite improvements in local production.
