The recent political crisis in Lagos over the removal of Mudashiru Obasa as Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly has drawn attention from political observers. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is being alleged to be behind the plot to ensure Obasa’s reinstatement. While some may see this as an act of favouritism,Iwitnesslive can report that the real reasons behind Tinubu’s decision are far more strategic and crucial to the future of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos.
Lagos politics has long operated under a structure where Tinubu is the ultimate king, while the system allows for other politicians to be powerful largely within their domains. These big politians serve as key figures in ensuring APC’s dominance in their areas. Now, it is no gainsaying that over the years, Obasa has become one of the biggest politicians in the state , having held the position of Speaker for 10 years.
More importantly, he is now the last major political figure in Lagos West, which is the largest senatorial district in the state. Lagos West covers Badagry, Ikeja, Agege, Alimosho, Mushin, Ojo, Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Amuwo-Odofin, and Ifako-Ijaiye APC has traditionally enjoyed strong support in Alimosho, Mushin, Agege, and Ikeja, but the party’s grip on other parts of Lagos West has been weakening due to rising opposition influence.
The situation has become even more critical following the expulsion of Rauf Aregbesola from APC, the political relocation of Solomon Adeola (Yayi) to Ogun State, and the sidelining of Deputy Governor Kadiri Hamzat, who once held sway in Mushin politics. These developments have left Lagos West without a clear leader-except for Obasa. If Obasa is removed as Speaker, APC risks losing its control over Lagos West, which could have disastrous consequences in future elections.
Lasbat Meranda, who replaced Obasa as Speaker, is from Apapa, a district that lacks the strong APC base found in areas like Alimosho, Mushin, and Agege While Meranda is an experienced legislator, she does not have the same political influence or grassroots support that Obasa enjoys. If APC proceeds with replacing Obasa with Meranda, it would be a serious political miscalculation that could weaken the party’s dominance in Lagos.
The Governors Advisory Council (GAC), which serves as a major decision-making body in Lagos politics, allegedly played a role in Obasa’s removal regardless of the recent denial by its Chairman Tajudeen Olusi . It is believed that Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu sided with the GAC in their move against Obasa. However, this decision has now backfired, as Tinubu, understanding the long-term political risks, has been forced to step in and reverse the move.
Some members of the GAC have reportedly been trying to replace the influence of Obasa and Aregbesola in Lagos West, but this power struggle could ultimately damage APC’s chances in future elections. If the APC leadership fails to recognize the importance of Obasa, they could unintentionally weaken their own political structure.
One of the major issues at play is that Lagos West has never produced a governor since Tinubu left office in 2007. The region has continued to feel sidelined in the politics of the state, and removing Obasa would only deepen this feeling of marginalization considering that Aregbesola has been expelled from the party; Yayi shifting his politicalbase to Ogun State and Hamzat, the deputy governor being reduced to a symbolic role.
If Obasa is removed as Speaker, Lagos West would be left without any major political figure in government, turning it into a “political orphan” within Lagos. This could cause internal resentment within the party and provide an opening for the opposition to make gains in the region.
This battle over the Speakership is not just about Obasa—it is about the future of APC in Lagos. If this political struggle continues, it could weaken APC’s dominance in the state over time. Tinubu understands this risk, which is why he is working hard to ensure that Obasa remains in his position.
With the 2027 elections on the horizon, APC can not afford to make costly mistakes. The party must maintain its strongholds, and Lagos West remains one of the most important voting blocs in the state. If APC loses control of this district, it could spell trouble for the party’s dominance in Lagos politics in the coming years.
Tinubu’s push for Obasa’s return is not just about political loyalty. It is a strategic decision to protect APC’s grip on Lagos. Without a strong leader like Obasa, Lagos West could become vulnerable to opposition forces, which could weaken APC’s influence across the state.
For Tinubu, this is not a battle he can afford to lose…
