For years, calm had gradually returned to Maiduguri, the capital of Nigeria’s Borno State and the birthplace of Boko Haram. But recent developments are reigniting fears that the jihadist group may be regaining strength.
Along the road from the airport into the city, a freshly repainted girls’ school stands as a symbolic rebuke to Boko Haram’s ideology — the group’s name translates to “Western education is forbidden.” Nearby, under the scorching 42°C sun, three men chase after a cement truck to collect a road levy, a mundane scene that contrasts sharply with the violence that once defined the city.
During the height of Boko Haram’s 15-year insurgency, bombings at locations like the bustling Monday Market were frequent. However, Maiduguri hasn’t seen a major attack since February 2021, and for a time, that seemed to mark a lasting shift.
But that sense of security was shaken on April 8, 2025, when Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum warned that Boko Haram is mounting a resurgence. He described a disturbing trend of near-daily attacks and kidnappings occurring without effective military response — a sign, he said, that authorities are “losing ground.”
Zulum issued the warning just weeks after Boko Haram fighters attacked two military bases in Borno and attempted to ambush his security convoy. Although the full casualty count is unclear, the incidents have intensified concerns.
While the military insists it is doing its best — with a spokesperson urging the public to appreciate the sacrifices being made — the Federal Government has downplayed the severity. Information Minister Mohammed Idris stated that Boko Haram had been “largely dissipated,” echoing earlier government claims that the group was “technically defeated.”
Zulum was blunt in his rebuttal: “I believe he is naive about what is happening in the country.”
Though a multinational force involving Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger has retaken swathes of territory over the years, Boko Haram has fragmented, and its factions — including Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) — continue to operate. These groups now use varied tactics, such as collecting taxes from villages under their control and engaging in local economic systems.
In January 2024, President Bola Tinubu pledged to eliminate all remaining insurgent groups, but attacks have persisted. At least 40 farmers were killed earlier this year, and reports of kidnappings have resurfaced. Meanwhile, thousands of displaced people returned home through a government resettlement initiative may now be at risk.
The International Crisis Group previously warned that this rushed resettlement plan could expose civilians to renewed violence and give jihadist groups opportunities to establish influence in resettled communities.
In Yobe State, the situation remains fragile. Villagers in Gujba, the site of a 2013 massacre of over 40 students, were reportedly threatened by Boko Haram in March 2025 — though authorities denied credible evidence for the claims.
Adding to the uncertainty, Niger’s recent withdrawal from the regional military coalition and the departure of French and American forces from the Sahel raise concerns about the region’s ability to coordinate security efforts. A proposed new joint force remains inactive.
In Maiduguri, some locals express frustration with the Tinubu administration, accusing national security leaders of focusing more on political maneuvering than on the deteriorating security. In a local clinic, an aid worker observing student nurses put it simply: “Everybody has forgotten Maiduguri.”
