The Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), is taking steps to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery via international third-party traders, in a bid to keep domestic refining operations running smoothly, The PUNCH reports.
Officials caution, however, that this intervention may not immediately bring relief at the pumps, as Nigerians continue to face high fuel prices following recent hikes by the $20 billion Lekki-based refinery.
Industry sources confirmed that Dangote temporarily halted the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), sparking fears of yet another price surge. If implemented, this would be the third hike in less than a week, with gantry prices already climbing from ₦774 to ₦995 per litre. Retail prices in some states have now topped ₦1,200 per litre, adding more strain to household budgets.
The situation reflects broader challenges in the global oil market. Kpler analytics show Nigeria’s crude imports from the United States surged to 41.13 million barrels in 2025, up 161% from 15.79 million barrels in 2024. The shift underlines the country’s increasing reliance on imported crude to meet refinery needs.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing Iran-US conflict, have disrupted supply chains and pushed Brent crude prices above $92 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy transit corridor, has also been affected, making imported crude more expensive and difficult to source.
A senior NNPC official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the company is leveraging its global trading network to procure crude for the Dangote refinery at competitive international rates. “NNPC remains committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. We continue to facilitate crude supply despite temporary availability constraints,” the official said.
Yet, the refinery cautioned that international sourcing would not immediately translate to lower pump prices. It receives just five cargoes per month from NNPC—far short of the 13 cargoes required under the naira-for-crude policy—forcing it to rely heavily on imported crude.
Industry experts note that increasing domestic refining output could help moderate prices. Eche Idoko, National Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, said the naira-for-crude policy could positively impact prices if fully implemented but warned that global tensions and imported crude costs remain a limiting factor.
“The Dangote refinery requires 14 cargoes from the government to meet local demand. If fully supplied, this would help stabilize prices,” Idoko explained. He also noted that the refinery’s location in a free trade zone adds import-related costs of $5–$7 per barrel, which are passed on to consumers.
Jeremiah Olatide, CEO of Petroleumprice.ng, emphasized the importance of balancing local refining and controlled imports to strengthen energy security and prevent excessive price spikes. “Imports should not exceed 20–25% of total supply, while the rest should come from local refineries,” he said.
Despite these pressures, the Dangote refinery has helped cushion Nigeria from even higher fuel prices. Olatide noted, “Without it, petrol could easily have reached N1,500 per litre.”
The refinery has also expanded its list of petroleum marketers from 13 to over 30 nationwide, including NIPCO Plc, MRS Oil Nigeria Plc, TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc, and Conoil Plc, to ensure continued supply amidst challenging market conditions.
With petrol now selling between ₦1,030 and ₦1,100 per litre in major cities, motorists are already adjusting fares, and consumers are bracing for broader economic impacts. The combination of rising international crude costs, domestic supply shortfalls, and ongoing geopolitical tensions continues to shape Nigeria’s fuel market in real time.
