Abuja—President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is set for a crucial test of political strength as the National Assembly convenes today to decide on his request for an Emergency Rule. With the constitutional requirement demanding a two-thirds majority in both chambers, Tinubu must secure the approval of 72 out of 109 Senators and 240 out of 360 House of Representatives members to validate his directive.
Tough Numbers Game in the Senate and House
The current composition of the National Assembly presents a significant challenge for the President:
Senate Composition:
APC – 58
PDP – 37
Labour Party (LP) – 7
Social Democratic Party (SDP) – 2
New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) – 2
All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) – 1
African Democratic Party (ADP) – 1
Vacant Seat – 1
With APC holding 58 seats, the ruling party falls short of the required 72 votes. Even with full party discipline, Tinubu needs at least 14 additional votes from opposition lawmakers—a task complicated by growing dissent within the PDP and Labour Party.
House of Representatives Composition:
APC – 175
PDP – 118
LP – 35
NNPP – 19
APGA – 5
ADC – 2
SDP – 2
YPP – 1
Vacant Seats – 3
In the House, APC’s 175 members leave a 65-vote gap to meet the 240-vote threshold. This means Tinubu must rally a coalition across party lines, a daunting task given recent political tensions.
Legal and Political Complications
Adding another layer of complexity, President Tinubu has already sworn in a Sole Administrator before obtaining legislative approval. This preemptive move could be interpreted as executive overreach, fueling opposition resistance within the National Assembly. Legal analysts warn that bypassing due process may render the move unconstitutional, setting the stage for a major legal battle.
What If Tinubu Fails to Secure Approval?
If the National Assembly fails to approve the Emergency Rule today, the directive automatically expires, as the law permits only two days for such consideration while in session. This creates a constitutional crisis with serious implications:
1. Legal Status of the Sole Administrator – Without legislative backing, the Sole Administrator’s appointment becomes null and void. This means he has no legal authority to govern, and any actions taken under his leadership could be challenged in court.
2. Who Can Remove Him? – The real crisis begins if the Sole Administrator refuses to vacate office. As a military officer with full armed protection, removing him from power becomes a delicate and potentially volatile issue. The police or military hierarchy may hesitate to act without a clear directive from the President or a court ruling.
3. Potential Court Intervention – Opposition parties, civil society groups, or affected stakeholders may rush to the courts to obtain an injunction declaring the Sole Administrator’s tenure illegal. However, enforcement remains a challenge if he refuses to step down voluntarily.
4. Confrontation Between Federal and State Authorities – If the National Assembly rejects the Emergency Rule, state institutions and political leaders may refuse to recognize the Sole Administrator, leading to a power struggle. Will federal forces enforce his authority against local opposition? That remains a key question.
A Brewing Constitutional Showdown
The unfolding situation places Nigeria at the edge of a major constitutional crisis. If the Emergency Rule lapses without approval, Tinubu may either seek alternative legal justifications to retain control or face internal and external pressure to reverse the appointment.
With time running out, the coming hours will determine whether the President can marshal enough support or if the opposition will successfully block the Emergency Rule, setting the stage for a potential legal and political showdown.
Precedents
There have been similar constitutional crises in other countries where leaders attempted to impose emergency rule or bypass legislative approval, leading to legal and political showdowns. Here are a few notable cases and how they were resolved:
1. Pakistan (2007) – Pervez Musharraf’s Emergency Rule
Situation:
Pakistani President and military ruler Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency in 2007, suspending the constitution and replacing Supreme Court judges who were about to rule against his continued rule. He also imposed restrictions on opposition leaders.
Resolution:
Widespread protests and legal challenges followed.
The Supreme Court eventually ruled against Musharraf’s actions, leading to his resignation under pressure.
The new civilian government restored constitutional rule, but it took months of political instability before stability returned.
2. Egypt (2013) – Military Removal of President Morsi
Situation:
In 2013, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi was removed by the military after mass protests. The military installed an interim government under emergency rule without full parliamentary approval.
Resolution:
The military-backed government held new elections, which led to the rise of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
While the new government consolidated power, international criticism and internal resistance continued for years.
3. Peru (2022) – President Castillo’s Failed Power Grab
Situation:
Peruvian President Pedro Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress and impose emergency rule without constitutional backing. Congress, in response, quickly impeached him, leading to his arrest.
Resolution:
The Vice President, Dina Boluarte, was sworn in as the new President.
Castillo’s supporters protested, but the military and police sided with Congress.
Peru returned to constitutional rule, but political instability persisted.
4. The Gambia (2017) – Yahya Jammeh’s Refusal to Step Down
Situation:
After losing the 2016 election, President Yahya Jammeh declared a state of emergency to extend his rule. However, the Gambian Parliament refused to back him.
Resolution:
A coalition of West African states (ECOWAS) sent military forces to force Jammeh out.
Under international pressure, Jammeh fled to exile in Equatorial Guinea, and the rightful winner, Adama Barrow, took office.
Lessons for Nigeria
Nigeria’s situation is unique but shares similarities with these past cases:
1. Legal Rejection Creates a Power Vacuum – If the National Assembly rejects the Emergency Rule today, the Sole Administrator’s authority will be illegal.
2. Who Enforces the Law? – If he refuses to leave, will the military or police intervene, or will courts issue orders that may not be enforced?
3. International and Domestic Pressure – Opposition parties, civil society, and possibly ECOWAS could apply pressure on Tinubu to back down.
4. Risk of Military or Judicial Overreach – If Tinubu insists on keeping the Sole Administrator without legal backing, it could lead to a constitutional crisis, potentially prompting court intervention or pushback from security forces.
Possible Outcomes
Tinubu Backs Down – He could withdraw the Sole Administrator and seek a political compromise.
Legal Battle Ensues – Courts could declare the Sole Administrator illegal, but enforcing such a ruling may be tricky.
Security Crisis – If the administrator refuses to leave, there may be a confrontation between federal and state forces.
How Nigeria’s situation unfolds will depend on the reaction of security agencies, opposition leaders, and public sentiment in the coming days.
In other countries where leaders attempted to impose emergency rule or bypass legislative approval, leading to legal and political showdowns.
Dr. G. FRASER. MFR
Headlinenews.news
Founder, The National Patriots.
