1. Crisis at the Core of APC in Lagos
Lagos has been APC’s stronghold since 1999, when President Bola Tinubu built the political machinery that has kept the party in control for over two decades. But today, insiders warn that fortress is cracking:
Grassroots Neglect: Loyal ward mobilisers complain they have been sidelined, while supervisory posts and appointments are handed to party elites’ children and relatives.
Factional Battles: The Governance Advisory Council (GAC) is accused of imposing candidates, igniting protests and widening divisions.
Collapse of Trust: Stakeholders now say openly that they no longer trust Lagos APC leaders to mobilise effectively for 2027.
Unless reversed, these cracks could shatter APC’s dominance in its most critical state.
2. The Growing Opposition Threat
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has capitalised on APC’s disarray, welcoming Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, who secured over 312,000 votes (~27%) in the 2023 Lagos governorship race.
ADC grassroots campaigns are already drawing aggrieved APC members.
If APC fails to repair itself, ADC could turn frustration into votes and create a stunning upset in 2027.
3. Why Lagos Matters for 2027
Lagos is Nigeria’s second-largest voting bloc after Kano.
Voter turnout has already collapsed: from 41% in 1999 to barely 6% in 2021 local elections.
If morale among APC’s base continues to collapse, Lagos could see record-low turnout—or worse, outright defections.
A weak Lagos showing would not just embarrass APC—it would damage its national performance in 2027.
4. Lessons from History: Division Kills Ruling Parties
PDP in Lagos (2003–2015): Infighting and imposition of candidates destroyed PDP’s prospects, cementing APC dominance.
APC in Oyo (2019): Internal rifts handed victory to PDP.
Osun State (2022): Grassroots discontent toppled APC, despite years of dominance.
History proves it: no fortress is safe if the grassroots are ignored.
5. Stakeholders’ Recommendations to Tinubu and APC Power Brokers
1. Establish a Presidential Intervention Committee
Neutral technocrats or group representative & APC stakeholders should restore grassroots supervisors, review appointments, and rebuild inclusion across Lagos LGAs.
2. Launch the Grassroots Perception Index
Data-driven monitoring, mobilisation of loyalty and morale, guiding quick responses before crises deepen as proposed by the National Patriots.
3. End Nepotism in Appointments
Transparent rules must reward service and loyalty—before family connections.
4. Direct Reassurance from the President
Stakeholders want Tinubu himself to address members, reaffirming loyalty will be recognised and divisions healed.
6. Conclusion: Act Now or Lose Lagos.
The warning is clear: APC stakeholders in Lagos feel abandoned, unrewarded, and ignored. Meanwhile, ADC is mobilising to convert APC’s weakness into victory.
If Tinubu and APC power brokers fail to act now, the party risks repeating the fate of PDP in Lagos, Oyo, and Osun—losing not just a state, but the confidence of its own loyal base.
The choice is stark: intervene decisively today—or risk watching Lagos, the crown jewel of APC’s political empire, fall in 2027.
Princess G. Adebajo-Fraser MFR. Public Analyst, Perception Management Expert, Founder, The National Patriots.
